The Tuesday Post-Mortem: 2023 Week 4
A betting recap for Week 4 of the 2023 college football season
The college football season keeps rolling along and my betting results continue to hover right around 50%. The betting lines were pretty efficient as I recorded 6 pushes on the week. In aggregate, a 48% win percentage in Week 4 brings the season average to… 48%. Once again, totals are outperforming picks against the spread, as they have all season.
Here are some games I am looking forward to watching in Week 5:
Utah at Oregon State, Friday 8:00 PM CT
Arkansas vs Texas A&M, Saturday 11:00 AM CT
Florida at Kentucky, Saturday 11:00 AM CT
Kansas at Texas, Saturday 2:30 PM CT
LSU at Ole Miss, Saturday 5:00 PM CT
Troy at Georgia State, Saturday 6:00 PM CT
Notre Dame at Duke, Saturday 6:30 PM CT
The Futures Report
Checking in on how some of my pre-season win total predictions are faring after Week 4:
Feeling Better
Northwestern o2.5/Minnesota u7 - The Big 10 West is a disaster. Outside of Wisconsin, the rest of the division is capable of losing in any given week. This week was a perfect example as Northwestern scored 21 unanswered points to force overtime against Minnesota before pulling out the win. I’m not raising my expectations for the Wildcats - there may only be one more win on the schedule in Howard - but that would be enough to hit this over. For Minnesota, this loss is made more painful by the fact that the defense is now also springing leaks. The offense was the main problem through the first three weeks. If the defense joins them, Minnesota may be fighting for bowl eligibility at the end of the year (against Ohio State and Wisconsin, yikes).
The entire Pac 12 - The Pac 12 was one of the more difficult conferences to sort out this offseason. It’s early in the season but I feel great about most of my picks. At the top, Oregon (o9.5), Utah (o8.5), and Washington (o9.5) all look like contenders. Taking the over for those teams meant someone at the top had to take losses. For me, that was UCLA (u8.5) and USC (u10). After the Bruins lost to Utah’s backup QB and USC struggled to put away a floundering Arizona State team, I feel better about both of those. In the second half of the conference, Washington State (o6) topped Oregon State (u8.5) and Arizona (o5) beat Stanford (u3). The biggest misses are likely going to be Colorado (u3.5), the Oregon defeat notwithstanding, and the aforementioned Arizona State (o4.5).
Feeling Worse
Clemson o10 - For a second it looked like the old Clemson had returned to reclaim its spot atop the ACC. Instead, an older Clemson returned, one that falters in big game situations and cedes the conference to Florida State and Miami. Not only is Clemson out of the ACC title race at this point, but they are also staring down at least three more games against ranked opponents, not to mention road trips to NC State and South Carolina. I think there is a path to an under .500 season for the Tigers which would be one of the bigger disappointments in recent memory.
Auburn o6.5/Baylor o7 - There is nothing inherently wrong with losing to teams that are better than you. Texas A&M and Texas are certainly better than Auburn and Baylor. But there is definitely something wrong when your offense is so inept that you can’t manage a single offensive TD. You can throw Iowa into this bucket as well. It was easy to write off the Texas State loss (Baylor) and the narrow win over Cal (Auburn) as early-season struggles. Now, it is clear that these two offenses just aren’t very good and the defenses won’t be good enough to get them to 7 wins.
Georgia Tech u4.5/Wake Forest o6.5 - I’m not sure how much better Georgia Tech is, but Wake Forest is certainly regressing. That was to be expected after QB Sam Hartman left for Notre Dame. Mitch Griffis just can’t stop throwing the ball to the other team. After avoiding a loss against Old Dominion where he threw two picks, the Wake Forest QB threw three interceptions against Georgia Tech to lose by two scores. Even if that is a fluky result, it still counts in the win column and makes it less likely that the Demon Deacons get to seven wins.
Week 4 Picks Summary
Thanks for reading! I will be back on Thursday with picks for Week 5! Let me know what you think on Twitter @CFB_Connor.