The Tuesday Post-Mortem: 2023 Week 3
A betting recap for Week 3 of the 2023 college football season
Never doubt college football’s ability to entertain even when there is an apparent lack of marquee matchups on the schedule. Sure, next week has more high-profile games. But will any of them live up to the excitement of the Rocky Mountain Showdown, a 61-yard Missouri FG, or a team-record 18 penalties from Boston College to blow the potential upset of a top-10 team? Throw in a handful of surprising upsets and the schadenfreude of watching Alabama struggle against USF and you have a great weekend of football watching. One can only hope for equally entertaining football in the weeks to come.
Another positive week brings us closer to the black for the season. Totals have outperformed spread picks all year and this week was no exception. That may indicate that the new clock rules have not been as impactful as expected (I made very minor adjustments to pace this offseason) but the transfer portal has been extremely important. Whatever the reason, a 56% win percentage on totals this week brings the season record to 54%. ATS posted a 46% win percentage which improved the season-long mark to 42%. Through three weeks, my total record sits at 48%.
Here are some games I am looking forward to watching in Week 4:
Wisconsin at Purdue, Friday 6:00 PM CT
Auburn at Texas A&M, Saturday 11:00 AM CT
Florida State at Clemson, Saturday 11:00 AM CT
Ole Miss at Alabama, Saturday 2:30 PM CT
UCLA at Utah, Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Iowa at Penn State, Saturday 6:30 PM CT
Ohio State at Notre Dame, Saturday 6:30 PM CT
The Futures Report
Checking in on how some of my pre-season win total predictions are faring after Week 3:
Feeling Better
Most of the SEC - It’s been a disappointing non-conference schedule for the SEC as a conference, but it has been great for the teams I took the under on. Arkansas (u7) lost to BYU and Vanderbilt (u4) lost to UNLV. Alabama (u10.5) and Georgia (u11.5) both looked beatable after narrow wins over inferior competition. Florida (o5.5) scored a major win as well, but I have the over for Tennessee (o9) which makes it a wash.
Air Force o8.5/Army o6 - The triple-option is not dead yet. Air Force looks like it may dominate the Mountain West again this year after drubbing Utah State. Army also looks like it has adjusted to its new shotgun-based offense and rolled over a team in UTSA that was expected to compete for the AAC. Even Navy looked good in a losing effort against Memphis. I’m on the under for Navy, but college football is better when the service academies are competitive.
Stanford u3 - Another week, another unexplainable FCS upset over an FBS team. This time, it is Sacramento State traveling to Stanford and handing their former head coach a loss. Will Stanford win another game this year? Their best chance is likely this weekend against an Arizona team led by the volatile Jayden de Laura. After that? A home game against Cal in late November could be the only other game with a single-digit spread.
Feeling Worse
Buffalo o6/ECU o5.5 - It’s not impossible but it isn't easy to overcome an 0-3 start and make a bowl game. I didn’t have high expectations for Buffalo in the non-conference portion of the schedule to begin with since they had to play Wisconsin and Liberty. But being non-competitive in those games and having a loss to Fordham makes a turnaround harder to envision. The same is true for ECU. The Michigan loss is forgivable, but blowout losses to Marshall and Appalachian State are major red flags for the rest of the season.
Oklahoma St. o6.5/Arizona St. o4.5 - In hindsight, last week’s game between these two teams was more of a warning sign than I realized at the time. A week ago, I still believed Oklahoma State was a solid team and that Arizona State must be on the upswing to keep the game competitive. That illusion was shattered on Saturday with Oklahoma State losing to South Alabama and Arizona State being shut out by Fresno State. Even if those are good G5 teams, those are embarrassing losses. Whether its injuries or coaching or talent, neither program has an effective QB which will make future wins hard to find.
Colorado u3.5/FIU u3.5 - If I’m going to miss on a win total future, I prefer that I be wildly wrong rather than miss a pick because of an unlucky bounce. Somehow, both Colorado and FIU are in a position to get over their win totals before the end of September. Yes, the competition gets stiffer as we enter conference play. However, Colorado still has games against Arizona State and Stanford while FIU has games against NMSU, UTEP, and Sam Houston. I will be very lucky to win either of these bets.
Week 3 Picks Summary
Thanks for reading! I will be back on Thursday with picks for Week 4! Let me know what you think on Twitter @CFB_Connor.