The Tuesday Post-Mortem: 2023 Week 2
A betting recap for Week 2 of the 2023 college football season
Week 2 has been circled on the calendar for months due to the concentration of high-level matchups. And it delivered. Colorado continues to steal the spotlight, Miami lit up the scoreboard against Texas A&M, and Texas now has a win to point to when they claim they are back. Compared to what we saw on Saturday, Week 3 is setting up to be a little bit of a letdown. Of course, given the parity we are seeing in the sport through the end of Week 2, we should expect another weekend of entertaining football.
On the betting front, Week 2 wasn’t perfect, but it was a step up from the first two weeks of the year. 55% overall with a 67% winning percentage on totals is a great week. Spreads are still underperforming though. 44% ATS in Week 2 leaves the season ATS record at just 40%. This is a performance to build on in Week 3.
Here are some games I am looking forward to watching in Week 3:
Kansas State at Missouri, Saturday 11:00 AM CT
South Carolina at Georgia, Saturday 2:30 PM CT
WKU at Ohio State, Saturday 3:00 PM CT
Tennessee at Florida, Saturday 6:00 PM CT
JMU at Troy, Saturday 6:00 PM CT
Syracuse at Purdue, Saturday 6:30 PM CT
Colorado State at Colorado, Saturday 9:00 PM CT
The Futures Report
Checking in on how some of my pre-season win total predictions are faring after Week 2:
Feeling Better
Alabama u10.5 - It was easy to write off concerns about Alabama in the offseason given Nick Saban’s track record as a head coach. After Saturday night, it is clear that those concerns were well founded. Jalen Milroe is a liability as a passer, an inexperienced offensive line doesn’t generate movement in the run game, and the secondary was exposed as the weakest link on defense. Alabama shouldn’t bottom out this season - they are far too talented - but they should be expected to lose at least one more game in conference play.
Minnesota u7 - The Minnesota offense is horrible. Following their 13-point performance against Nebraska, the Golden Gophers put up just 25 points against ECU. That included getting stuffed at the goal line on three straight plays at the end of the game when the result was already decided (and prevented them from covering against the spread). Maybe a matchup next week against UNC will help get the ball rolling. If the offense doesn’t get fixed, it will be tough to find wins in conference play.
Wash. St. o6/Wisconsin u8.5 - Washington State made a change at offensive coordinator in the offseason and the change seems to be paying off. After a down year in 2022, QB Cam Ward is back to looking like the star QB he was projected to be when coming up from the FCS. As for Wisconsin, the change in offensive personnel has not been as effective. QB Tanner Mordecai showed improvement from last week, but the run game sputtered leading to a Badgers loss. It might take some time for the Wisconsin offense to come together, especially as the difficulty of the schedule increases.
Feeling Worse
Buffalo o6/Nevada o4 - Not much to say here. FCS games are essentially assumed wins when I pick win totals. That makes a loss devastating for overs. Buffalo put up a fight against Wisconsin last week but now find themselves 0-2 after a loss to Fordham. Nevada decided a 52-point loss to USC wasn’t embarrassing enough and fell 33-6 to Idaho. Nevada is falling rapidly in my power rankings and now sits in the bottom 10.
Houston o4.5/Rice u4.5 - Rice might actually be improved with JT Daniels at QB. I thought last week’s performance against Texas might indicate weakness for the Longhorns. Instead, it might have been a sign of future strength for the Owls. Alternatively, Houston’s win over UTSA last week may not be as impressive after UTSA struggled against Texas State. The AAC could be one of the more competitive conferences to watch moving forward with no clearly established team at the top of the pecking order.
Miami u7.5/Texas A&M o8.5 - After watching Saturday’s game, should Miami be upgraded or should Texas A&M be downgraded? It’s probably both but it is tough to tell with how fluky the game was. There were effectively four D/ST scores in this game (blocked punt, muffed punt, kick return TD, interception return). Outside of those, both offenses were nearly even in success rate, although Miami was far more explosive. The biggest concern is clearly the Texas A&M defense which was supposed to be much better than their performance on Saturday.
Week 2 Picks Summary
Thanks for reading! I will be back on Thursday with picks for Week 3! Let me know what you think on Twitter @CFB_Connor.