2024 Postseason Preview: Week 3 Part 2
A betting preview for bowl games between Christmas and New Year's Eve
Back with the remaining bowl games leading up to the second round of the College Football Playoff. Bowl season has been steadily improving in watchability, even if the quality of football has left a lot to be desired. There are only 24 games remaining in the 2024 college football season, so all football is good football at this point in the season. Be on the lookout for my round 2 CFP picks on New Year’s Eve in the lead up to the kickoff of the Penn State/Boise State game.
The Picks
Saturday, December 28th
UConn vs. North Carolina, 10:00 AM CT
Pick: North Carolina -2.5, Over 53.5
Despite the hiring of Bill Belichick, UNC has been hit hard by losses to the NFL draft and the transfer portal in advance of the Fenway Bowl. Both offensive tackles are missing as is star RB Omarion Hampton. Out of necessity, UNC will need to air it out to generate offense. They should have plenty of success against a UConn defense that was already suspect prior to losing a starting CB to the transfer portal. UConn could also find success against a UNC defense missing its two best players on the defensive line. I like the over to kick off the 8-game Saturday slate.
Boston College vs. Nebraska, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Boston College +4, Under 46.5
Boston College technically lost QB Thomas Castellanos to the portal, but he was benched four games ago in favor of Grayson James. The Eagles are 3-1 since James took over under center. Meanwhile, Nebraska is missing four starters on the defense, and starting RB Dante Dowdell is in the portal. Considering the Cornhuskers lost five of their final six games, this is a good spot to fade Nebraska and take the points with Boston College.
Louisiana vs. TCU, 1:15 PM CT
Pick: Louisiana +10, Under 59
The spread and total are out of alignment in this game. If Louisiana’s starting QB Ben Wooldridge is back from injury, and the expectation is that he will play, then a total of nearly 60 points is warranted. But if that is the case, then Louisiana should not be a double-digit underdog, especially with TCU missing its two best receivers. If he is out, TCU should be a heavy favorite, but there should be a lower total to reflect Louisiana starting a third-string QB. I think Wooldridge plays, so I am taking the points.
Iowa State vs. Miami, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Miami -4.5, Over 57.5
Similar to the game above, this spread appears to be trying to find a middle-ground until Cam Ward’s status for this game is confirmed. But the total implies that Ward will be needed to keep up with the passing game of Iowa State as both Higgins and Noel should be playing in this game for the Cyclones. If Ward is playing, then Miami should be at least a TD favorite. If he is out, there might be a credible argument for Iowa State to be favored. At this time, I expect Ward to play, so lay the points.
Miami-OH vs. Colorado State, 3:30 PM CT
Pick: Colorado State +2.5, Over 40.5
This is easily the ugliest game on the schedule on Saturday. Miami-OH is missing both starting wide receivers leaving the ground game as the only viable offensive option. Due to injuries earlier this year in the receiving room, Colorado State transitioned to a run-heavy offense mid-season and subsequently won six of their last seven games. The Rams will be missing at least three starters in the front seven which could allow the RedHawks to have some success on the ground, but not enough for me to support them as a favorite. Take the points.
East Carolina vs. NC State, 4:45 PM CT
Pick: NC State -7, Under 60.5
The biggest loss for NC State in this game may be DC Tony Gibson leaving to take the Marshall head coaching job. Unfortunately for ECU, the offense is unlikely to be able to exploit any deficiencies with two starting receivers out for this game. NC State will also be without starting receiver Kevin Concepcion, which will only hurt a passing attack that was already struggling this season. I don’t see how either team is going to score enough to get a total in the 60s. I’m on the under.
BYU vs. Colorado, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Colorado -3, Under 55.5
We get a rare conference matchup in the Alamo Bowl which gives us a look at two of the better teams in the Big 12 that barely missed out on a spot in the conference title game. Deion Sanders has said that he expects all of Colorado’s stars, including Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, to play in this game giving them a clear advantage over BYU. With neither team missing any key pieces, this game is efficiently priced. There is no value to be had at the current numbers. If the spread drops below 3, I would be interested in laying the points with Colorado. And if the total climbs up to 56, I would take the under.
Louisiana Tech vs. Army, 8:15 PM CT
Pick: Army -14.5, Over 43.5
With all of the chaos around the transfer portal, it is a little surprising that we’ve only had one team opt out of a bowl game. Louisiana Tech gladly accepted the spot that had been vacated by Marshall, but the Bulldogs are about to get steamrolled by Army. Even if star WR Tru Edwards is playing in this game (no guarantee with him in the transfer portal), Louisiana Tech is outgunned with this Army offense facing a depleted Louisiana Tech front seven. Don’t overthink it. Lay the points with Army.
Monday, December 30th
Iowa vs. Missouri, 1:30 PM CT
Pick: Missouri -3, Over 40
The sole college football game on Monday is not particularly enticing. Both teams will be without their best offensive players with RB Kaleb Johnson and WR Luther Burden both going to the NFL Draft. That is far more devastating for Iowa, although they will get Brendan Sullivan back under center which could lift the passing game. Regardless of who is taking snaps for Iowa, Missouri will have the better QB as long as Brady Cook is playing. It won’t be comfortable, but the play in this game is on the over. Neither team will have much of a running game due to missing players and strong opposing run defenses. With a total of just 40 points, we don’t need that many scores to get to the over.
Tuesday, December 31st
Alabama vs. Michigan, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Alabama -12.5, Over 43.5
A quick, four-game slate sets the stage for the second round of the CFP beginning with Alabama facing Michigan. The Wolverines’ struggles on offense this season have been well-documented. That is unlikely to improve facing Alabama, even with the Crimson Tide playing at a level below what we had come to expect under Saban. More importantly, Michigan will be missing all of the key pieces on defense that led them to a National Championship last year. Alabama will roll Michigan. The only question is will Michigan contribute enough points of their own to hit the over.
Louisville vs. Washington, 1:00 PM CT
Pick: Louisville -2.5, Under 49.5
We will effectively get two backup QBs in the Sun Bowl. Louisville starter Tyler Shough opted out while Washington starter Will Rogers has been benched. Neither Harrison Bailey nor Demond Williams inspires a ton of confidence as a passer, although both will have excellent running backs in the backfield with them to help relieve the pressure. Both teams should rely on the run in this game, leading to the under.
South Carolina vs. Illinois, 2:00 PM CT
Pick: South Carolina -9.5, Over 48
No team was playing better football than South Carolina at the end of the season. With LaNorris Sellers under center, I would not recommend betting against South Carolina. If there is a weakness for the Gamecocks, it is star DE Kyle Kennard opting out to prepare for the draft. However, Illinois had their best WR, Pat Bryant, opt out as well which partially negates the impact of losing Kennard’s pass-rushing abilities. Illinois scored 38 points in each of their final three games, so don’t expect the Illini to be helpless on offense. With Sellers driving the South Carolina offense, this could be more of a shootout than people are expecting. I like the over.
Baylor vs. LSU, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Baylor -3.5, Under 59.5
The vibes out of Baton Rouge are horrific right now. The Tigers will be without both starting tackles, two wide receivers, and their starting tight end. And LSU can’t be excited about another visit to the Texas Bowl to face a mid-tier Big 12 opponent. Baylor is likely going to be fired up for this game and will be riding a six-game win streak into the bowl appearance. While having Sawyer Robertson and Garrett Nussmeier in the same game would appear to be a shootout, all of the missing pieces from the LSU roster will significantly hamper the ability of the Tigers to keep up with Baylor. Lay the points but take the under.
Bowl Pool Picks
Updated bowl pool picks from last week. The changes for the next three days of games:
Miami over Iowa State (Ward now assumed to be playing)
NC State over ECU (leverage has dropped as NC State has become a heavier favorite)
You can find me on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!