2023 Week 9 Mid-Week CFB Betting Preview
A betting preview for the mid-week portion of Week 9 of the 2023 college football season
Week 9 Mid-Week Picks
Tuesday, October 24th
Liberty at Western Kentucky, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Liberty -4.5, Under 62
Anyone who has spent the last few weeks watching CUSA games of varying quality on Tuesday nights will finally be rewarded with a game between the conference’s two best teams. Unfortunately, there is a significant gap between the best team in the league (Liberty) and the runner-up (WKU). For years, the Hilltoppers have been at the top of the conference largely on the strength of an explosive passing attack. While WKU is still throwing the ball around at one of the highest rates in the country, the effectiveness has fallen off a cliff. And while the offense has regressed, the defense has not shown significant improvement, at least not against the run. That’s a problem facing Chadwell’s option-based attack that he brought with him from Coastal Carolina. As we saw last week, running QBs, like Jacksonville State’s Zion Webb, have been able to run roughshod over the Hilltoppers defense. I expect more of the same from Kaidon Salter and the Flames on Tuesday night. I would lay the points with Liberty up to 6.5.
Wednesday, October 25th
UTEP at Sam Houston, 7:00 PM CT
Pick: UTEP +3, Over 36
Another week, another game where Sam Houston is inexplicably favored in a game against an FBS opponent. The Bearkats almost came up with their first win of the season but fell in double-overtime to FIU. The transitive property doesn’t always hold in college football, but we just saw that same FIU team lose to UTEP the week prior, the same UTEP that plays Sam Houston on Wednesday. Don’t overthink this. Until Sam Houston proves they can win a game, there is no reason to back them as favorites. Yes, UTEP is injured, especially at QB. However, they were also depleted when they beat FIU two weeks ago, and the QB who started in that game will now be making his third career start rather than his first. UTEP should be a narrow favorite in this game, so I am all over the Miners getting a full three points.
Thursday, October 26th
Georgia State at Georgia Southern, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Georgia State +1.5, Under 64
Of the three football games being offered on Thursday night, the in-state rivalry game between Georgia State and Georgia Southern is by far the most compelling. Not only is Modern Day Hate a storied rivalry, but both teams are also having very successful seasons. Both the Panthers and the Eagles have dropped just one game in conference play (to Troy and James Madison, respectively), but have otherwise rolled through the rest of their competition. On the field, the similarities continue. Neither team has had any success against the pass with both defenses ranked outside the top 100. That likely benefits an Eagles team that passes more than anyone else in football. However, Georgia State also boasts an efficient passing attack that is complemented by an explosive run game. There’s not enough of a difference between these two teams for me to feel confident in either direction, so I would likely take the points if forced to choose.
Friday, October 27th
FAU at Charlotte, 6:40 PM CT
Pick: FAU -4.5, Over 41
Full disclosure: I won’t be watching this game. Game 1 of the World Series begins Friday night and pretty much any sport is going to be more entertaining than what Charlotte will put on the field. The Rangers might score more as well. For those inclined to watch, FAU is the clear play in this game. The 49ers offense is moving in the wrong direction. They only scored 10 points in a win over ECU a week after being shut out by Navy. I’m not a big fan of FAU, but at least the Owls have shown some consistency on offense. The saving grace for Charlotte might be a pass defense that is easily among the best in the conference. With FAU’s propensity for passing, Charlotte might be able to stay in the game for longer than you might think. However, without the ability to score, FAU is the only side worth backing in this game. I lean towards the over in this game, but with Charlotte’s recent struggles, I would rather just back the Owls.
Dogs of the (Mid)Week
Both mid-week dogs won last week as Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky and FIU beat Sam Houston. We are fading Sam Houston again this week along with two other small favorites on Tuesday and Thursday.
NMSU +130 over Louisiana Tech
UTEP +140 over Sam Houston
Georgia State + 105 over Georgia Southern
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!