2023 Week 9 CFB Betting Picks and Preview
A betting preview for Week 9 of the 2023 college football season
The Week 9 slate is quietly one of the more disappointing collections of games so far this year. The marquee matchups this week are arguably Florida/Georgia and Ohio State/Wisconsin, both of which feature double-digit spreads. Fortunately, there are plenty of other games to choose from that are compelling to watch and offer potential betting value.
The Picks
Saturday, October 28th
West Virginia at UCF, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: West Virginia +7, Over 60
UCF got John Rhys Plumlee back from injury last week and nearly upset Big 12 front-runner Oklahoma. Based on that result, the Knights enter this week favored by a full TD over West Virginia. For a team that has yet to win a game in conference play, it is a little surprising to see UCF favored by so many points. I love both offenses in this game but only one team has a defense that isn’t atrocious. That’s the Mountaineers. West Virginia is basically a league-average defense against both the run and the pass. UCF is only slightly worse against the pass but is easily in the bottom 10 in the country against the run. I don’t expect many stops in this game so I like getting the points with West Virginia and the over.
Iowa State at Baylor, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Iowa State -3, Over 47
Iowa State is still being undervalued after a poor start to the season that likely stemmed from the betting scandal over the offseason. Since getting blown out by Oklahoma, the Cyclones have rattled off two wins over TCU and Cincinnati. Now, they get to face a Baylor team that has two narrow wins and two blowout losses in conference play. Iowa State QB Rocco Becht is clearly the best QB in this game and the Cyclones are definitively better on defense than the Bears. At just three points, I feel comfortable playing Iowa State as a favorite on the road.
Oregon at Utah, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Oregon -6.5, Over 47
This is a good spot to sell high on the Utes coming off a big win over USC. Utah’s defense has lived up to pre-season expectations, both against the pass and the run. Unfortunately, the offense is still a work in progress. Losing Cam Rising and Brant Kuithe for the year puts a hard cap on the ceiling for this team. That was enough to beat a USC team that is currently in freefall, but it won’t be enough against an Oregon team that rebounded nicely last week against Washington State. The gap between Oregon and Utah on offense is much wider than between the two teams on defense. If this spread is below a TD, Oregon is the clear play.
Colorado at UCLA, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: UCLA -15, Under 61.5
Don’t let the bye-week distract you from how bad Colorado looked on the field last time we saw the Buffs play. Deion Sanders and company narrowly avoided a loss to Arizona State before collapsing in dramatic fashion against Stanford. UCLA’s offense has been disappointing with Dante Moore unable to seize the offense from Ethan Garbers. However, the defense has been spectacular. Besides, every offense has looked good when playing against Colorado. I’m not excited about laying close to three TDs with the UCLA offense, but I don’t see how Colorado keeps pace in this game given their limitations on defense and projected struggles against the UCLA defense. I would lay the points with UCLA and take the under.
Oregon State at Arizona, 9:30 PM CT
Pick: Oregon State -3, Over 56.5
The marquee Pac-12 game of the evening could be one of the more exciting games of the entire week with Oregon State traveling to Arizona. Noah Fifita has been a revelation for the Arizona offense since replacing Jayden de Laura. However, this game will be decided on the other side of the ball. Oregon State’s offense has decimated every opponent on the schedule, even in a loss to Washington State. Can they replicate that against an Arizona defense that nearly pitched a shutout against Washington State and almost beat both USC and Washington? I think they can. While Arizona has been effective at stopping explosive passing attacks, they have not faced a rushing attack like this. I think Oregon State should be favored by over a TD in this game, so I am happy to lay just three points with the Beavers.
Best Bets
Just want my picks and don’t care about my analysis? This is the section for you. Here are my five favorite spreads and totals to target in Week 9.
Spreads
Clemson at NC State (+9.5)
Iowa State (-3) at Baylor
Wyoming (+5) at Boise State
New Mexico (PK) at Nevada
Oregon State (-3) at Arizona
Totals
Purdue at Nebraska o39
Michigan State at Minnesota o41.5
Virginia at Miami o47.5
Old Dominion at James Madison u49
Troy at Texas State u53
Dogs of the Week
West Virginia +220 over UCF
NC State +280 over Clemson
Miami-OH +240 over Ohio
Mississippi State +200 over Auburn
Louisiana +350 over South Alabama
Wyoming +170 over Boise State
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!