2023 Week 7 Mid-Week CFB Betting Preview
A betting preview for beginning of Week 7 of the 2023 college football season
I’m back! Given some of the absurdity of last week’s football games, it may have been for the best that I took a week off. As promised, I have returned for Week 7! Starting last week, we now have mid-week football every Tuesday and Wednesday from now until the end of the season. As a result, the regular Tuesday Post-Mortem will be replaced by a hybrid recap of last week’s performance along with picks for the mid-week games. That will start next week since I didn’t make any picks in Week 6. The picks for the remaining games over the weekend will be released on Thursday, as always. With the scheduling notes out of the way, let’s get to the football.
The Picks
Tuesday, October 10th
Louisiana Tech at MTSU, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Louisiana Tech +3, Over 54.5
The record doesn’t look great, but Louisiana Tech hasn’t been as bad as I thought they would be entering the season. The offense is really bad regardless of whether it is Hank Bachmeier or Jack Turner under center. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, MTSU is even worse. The Blue Raiders love to throw the ball around, they have one of the highest pass rates in the country, but they don’t do it with any sort of effectiveness. They also don’t care who they throw to with 12 turnovers already this season. That plays right into Louisiana Tech’s hands as the Bulldogs boast one of the better pass defenses in the G5. You could reasonably argue that Louisiana Tech should be slightly favored in this game, even on the road, so I would happily take 3 points with the Bulldogs.
Liberty at Jacksonville State, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Liberty -6.5, Under 58.5
I’ve been wrong on Jacksonville State all season long, so I am staying away from the spread in this game. I lean towards Liberty as I have more faith in Kaidon Salter than the QB rotation that the Gamecocks are rolling out. However, my favorite play in this game is the under. Jacksonville State’s elevated pace will be offset by a Liberty team content to slow the game down and control the clock with Chadwell’s option-based offense. And neither team is particularly effective at converting scoring opportunities into points. I don’t expect either team in this game to reach 30 points, so I like the under here.
Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: App. State -5, Under 61.5
As expected, the Tim Beck experiment at Coastal Carolina has been a disaster. Despite returning one of the better QBs in the league in Grayson McCall, the Chanticleers have been anemic on offense. To make matters worse, the defense has regressed rapidly, especially against the run. That’s good news for the Mountaineers who are running the ball with authority. Appalachian State has also been more successful against a more difficult schedule. In the past, this would have been one of the marquee matchups in the Sun Belt. This year, I would be surprised if Coastal Carolina is still within striking distance when the fourth quarter rolls around. I’m laying the points with App. State.
Wednesday, October 11th
UTEP at FIU, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: FIU -2, Over 44
As if things weren’t bad enough in El Paso, the season is about to go from bad to worse for the Miners. If you thought UTEP was struggling on offense before, imagine how bad they will be on Wednesday with starter Gavin Hardison dealing with an arm injury and both backups dealing with concussions. I don’t have a lot of faith in FIU, although QB Keyone Jenkins has shown flashes of competence, but the Panthers have a much better situation under center than what the Miners have. This game will almost certainly be ugly, but the only play here is to fade a team that could conceivably be rolling out a QB that was fourth on the depth chart last week. Back FIU at anything under a FG.
Sam Houston at New Mexico State, 8:00 PM CT
Pick: New Mexico State -3.5, Over 42.5
Until proven otherwise, there is no reason to back Sam Houston. The Bearkats might be improving. They managed to take Jacksonville State to overtime and only lost by five to Liberty. But until Sam Houston can get a win, I will continue to bet against them. This week, a matchup against NMSU is especially appealing. Sam Houston has been terrible against the run. Coincidentally, NMSU is at its best when the offense can lean on the ground game and not be forced to make QB Diego Pavia put the ball in the air. I expect the Aggies to run roughshod over the Bearkats on Wednesday night. If I had any confidence in the Sam Houston offense, my favorite play would be the over. Instead, I will just lay the points with the Aggies at home.
Dogs of the (Mid)Week
There are only five games to choose from and I am only backing one underdog so the choice is clear.
Louisiana Tech +130 over MTSU
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!