2023 Week 7 CFB Betting Picks and Preview
A betting preview for Week 7 of the 2023 college football season
After a pretty lackluster mid-week slate of games, Week 7 arrives with an equally unappetizing schedule on Thursday and Friday. Fortunately, the marquee games on Saturday provide us with plenty to look forward to this weekend. Here are this week’s picks for college football:
The Picks
Saturday, October 14th
Georgia Southern at James Madison, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Georgia Southern +6, Over 58.5
One of the few remaining unbeaten teams in the country should be on upset alert this week. Give credit to James Madison as the Dukes continue to make the jump from FCS to FBS competition look easy since being promoted last season. However, this year’s team is not nearly as dominant as last year’s team as evidenced by narrow wins over South Alabama, Utah State, Troy, and Virginia. This may be the toughest test so far as Georgia Southern is steamrolling everyone they play. The Eagles have one of the best passing attacks in college football and I don’t think James Madison has the horses on offense to keep up. I like Georgia Southern to keep it close and be in a position to win in the 4th quarter. I also like the over in this game. Outside of a matchup against Wisconsin where the Eagles threw 5 interceptions, Georgia Southern has not scored fewer than 34 points in a game.
BYU at TCU, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: BYU +6, Over 52.5
TCU is broken. I’m not sure how the Horned Frogs are still favored in this game, especially with the absence of QB Chandler Morris. TCU’s best win this season is either against Houston or SMU, effectively two G5 teams. Since then, the Horned Frogs dropped a game against West Virginia and then were beaten soundly by Iowa State, two middling Big 12 programs. Meanwhile, BYU has methodically progressed through the season with a one-score loss to Kansas as the only blemish. The Cougars won’t be blowing anyone out, but they are a far more consistent team than TCU is at this point in the season. I like BYU to win this game outright, so I also like getting 6 points.
Oregon at Washington, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Oregon +3, Under 67.5
The biggest game of the season in the Pac-12 has arrived! The winner of this game will be the unquestioned favorite to win the conference, especially with Utah and USC struggling (albeit for different reasons). This will also be the first time this season either team will play a comparable opponent. Washington’s passing offense is elite but it will be facing a strong Oregon defense. On the other side, Oregon’s offense rises and falls with the ever-volatile Bo Nix at QB. This matchup is effectively a tossup in my mind, so I want the points with Oregon. I’m also taking the under in this game. This total is elevated as both offenses have scored at will through the first five games against inferior competition. Now, facing legitimate defenses, I expect a much lower output from both teams.
Auburn at LSU, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: LSU -11.5, Under 61
LSU has received a lot of negative attention over the past few weeks due to the poor performance of the Tigers’ pass defense. If there is a team in the SEC that is ill-equipped to exploit that weakness, it is the Auburn Tigers. We’ve seen this matchup before; LSU crushed Mississippi State in the SEC opener by 27 points. I expect a similar performance here. I’m willing to entertain the idea that the Auburn defense is better than the one found in Starkville. That should help this game go under the total. But the LSU offense is still plenty capable of scoring enough points to put this game well out of reach. I would be willing to play LSU up to two TDs, so -11.5 is a relative steal.
USC at Notre Dame, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Notre Dame -2.5, Under 60.5
At some point, USC’s luck will run out. Colorado and Arizona couldn’t make the Trojans pay, but Notre Dame might be able to. It won’t be in shootout fashion though. Notre Dame’s path to victory is running the ball, controlling the clock, and keeping the USC offense off of the field. If they can do that, Notre Dame wins this game. If they can’t, the Fighting Irish could be in for a rough evening after the defensive performance they put on display against Louisville. I wasn’t expecting Notre Dame to be favored in this game, but I will gladly back the Irish under a FG. At 3 points or more, I would turn my attention to the total. For as good as the USC offense is, they only put up 28 points in regulation against Arizona. Notre Dame’s defense is better than that and should be able to keep the score under 60.5.
Best Bets
Just want my picks and don’t care about my analysis? This is the section for you. Here are my five favorite spreads and totals to target in Week 7.
Spreads
Fresno State (-4) at Utah State
Iowa State (+5) at Cincinnati
Florida (+2.5) at South Carolina
Wake Forest (+1.5) at Virginia Tech
Iowa (+10) at Wisconsin
Totals
Kent State at Eastern Michigan o39.5
Temple at North Texas u70
Oregon at Washington u67.5
Louisville at Pitt o44.5
UAB at UTSA u67.5
Dogs of the Week
Brutal Week 5 on the moneyline front leaves us down nearly 2.5 units on the year. This is as good of a week as any to rebound. Here are my plays for this week:
Houston +130 over West Virginia
Michigan State +170 over Rutgers
Kent State +270 over Eastern Michigan
Iowa State +165 over Cincinnati
Georgia Southern +195 over James Madison
Charlotte +130 over Navy
BYU +180 over TCU
Iowa +285 over Wisconsin
UAB +280 over UTSA
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!