2023 Week 5 CFB Betting Picks and Preview
A betting preview for Week 5 of the 2023 college football season
It’s time for another week of college football! Unfortunately, I will be traveling next week and will be unable to provide any picks for Week 6. Never fear! I will return in full for Week 7. In the meantime, here are my picks for a full slate of games for Week 5!
The Picks
Thursday, September 28th
Jacksonville State at Sam Houston, 7:00 PM CT
Pick: Jacksonville State -6.5, Over 36.5
Sam Houston has looked awful since making the jump up to FBS. They’ve scored a combined 10 points through three games, although you could technically say they are improving after finally scoring a TD last week. I’m not super high on Jacksonville State, but at least the Gamecocks have shown they can handle bad competition with wins over UTEP and EMU. As the total in this game implies, this game is expected to be sloppy. If you want to bet the total, I think the only play is on the over, but I would stay away. I would rather back the only team in this game that has shown the ability to play FBS-caliber football laying less than a TD. It’s not my favorite play of the weekend, but it is my favorite target on Thursday night.
Friday, September 29th
Utah at Oregon State, 8:00 PM CT
Pick: Oregon State -3.5, Under 44.5
The flow chart for Utah football games has been reduced to a single question. Is a healthy Cam Rising playing? If yes, back the Utes. If not, it won’t be pretty. Rising, when healthy, is one of the top QBs in the league. Unfortunately, we have not seen Rising since his injury at the end of last year. Judging by the spread in this game, the market doesn’t think this will be the week he returns. After watching the Beavers get pummeled by Washington State last weekend, I’m nervous about backing them as favorites of more than a FG. Especially since DJ Uiagalelei has tuned back into the same QB we saw at Clemson. But at least you get some certainty in the Oregon State offense that just isn’t present when you look at Utah. The best play in this game is the under. Utah’s defense has remained solid even as the offense has crumpled without Rising. I like the under 44.5.
Saturday, September 30th
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Texas A&M -6.5, Over 53.5
I was hoping that the news that Connor Weigman is out for the season would result in some line movement in favor of the Razorbacks, but it appears that everyone is on the same page when it comes to the Aggies. Yes, the loss of Weigman likely lowers the ceiling for Texas A&M. However, Max Johnson is a capable backup, and the rest of the team is talented enough to beat most of the other teams on their schedule. That includes Arkansas. Last week we saw a team with no passing threats (Auburn) fail to score against Texas A&M’s defense. In fact, the only team to score against them was the passing attack of Miami. Even after downgrading the Aggies’ offense, I am still willing to lay the points as long as this spread is under a TD.
Virginia at Boston College, 1:00 PM CT
Pick: Virginia +3.5, Under 54.5
Since making the switch at QB from Tony Muskett to Anthony Colandrea, the Cavaliers have turned into a must-watch football team. Not because they are good, but because they are extremely volatile. That’s both fun to watch and a great betting opportunity. Boston College is definitely a better team than Virginia on average. But Virginia’s ceiling is much higher, mainly because of Colandrea’s recklessness at QB. When it works, the Virginia offense can easily outscore a Boston College team that is entirely dependent on the legs of Thomas Castellanos. If it doesn’t work, Virginia can still keep it close because Boston College isn’t very good. At a FG plus the hook, I’m taking the points with Virginia.
LSU at Ole Miss, 5:00 PM CT
Pick: LSU -2.5, Under 67.5
What about the Ole Miss loss to Alabama last weekend has people believing in the Rebels? Was it the negative EPA/play on offense? Or maybe it was giving up over 400 yards including over 200 on the ground? If your argument is, “Well, that was against Alabama”, then you might want to take a look at the talent that LSU has on both sides of the ball. Jayden Daniels is a better QB than Jalen Milroe, and the Tigers are as stout along the line of scrimmage as the Crimson Tide were. If there is a positive for Ole Miss, it is that the LSU secondary has been horrible to start the season. Then again, Ole Miss couldn’t take advantage of an Alabama secondary that had just been shredded by the Texas offense. This line is bafflingly low, so I will gladly lay the points with LSU as a short home favorite. I’m also on the under since I don’t think the Rebels will be able to pull their weight on offense to get into the 30s.
Troy at Georgia State, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Georgia State -1.5, Over 50.5
This is the game of the day in the G5. Don’t be misled by Troy’s 2-2 record, the Trojans lost to a good Kansas State team and had a 2-point loss to James Madison. The Trojans are still a good football team. Of course, Georgia State is also very good, especially with an offense led by QB Darren Grainger, RB Marcus Carroll, and WR Robert Lewis. The matchup to watch in this game is the Troy offense against the Georgia State defense. Troy can’t run the ball. They are bottom-10 in the country in most rushing metrics. And while the Panthers are good against the run, they are in the bottom 10 against the pass. Both of these teams should be able to air it out all night long. I expect a lot of points in this game, so I am on the over. If forced to pick a side, I will take Georgia State by virtue of the Panthers being at home. However, I don’t have much confidence either way since I think both teams are playing good football right now.
Notre Dame at Duke, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Notre Dame -5.5, Over 52
I can understand the frustration of Notre Dame fans after losing to Ohio State on the last play of the game because there were only 10 men on the field. However, remove that play and the long TD run and Notre Dame played a more complete football game than the Buckeyes did on Saturday night. If anything, I am more bullish on the Irish now than I was going into last week. For as great as Duke has been to open the season, the Blue Devils are probably still overvalued from a win over Clemson that was a little lucky to begin with. Notre Dame has a decided talent advantage, particularly along the lines of scrimmage, and a veteran QB who is less likely to make the same mistakes Clemson made on offense. I make this line 6.5 in favor of the Irish, so there is a small amount of value on Notre Dame. I also like the under in this game. As Notre Dame showed last weekend, the defense is capable of throttling an opponent’s offense, even one as talented as Ohio State’s. However, the offense is still primarily ground-based with a slow tempo which will limit their ability to run up the score.
Best Bets
Just want my picks and don’t care about my analysis? This is the section for you. Here are my five favorite spreads and totals to target in Week 5.
Spreads
Temple at Tulsa (-3.5)
East Carolina (+3.5) at Rice
Pitt (-2.5) at Virginia Tech
San Diego State at Air Force (-10.5)
West Virginia (+12.5) at TCU
Totals
USC at Colorado u73.5
Houston at Texas Tech o50.5
Illinois at Purdue u53.5
LSU at Ole Miss u67.5
South Carolina at Tennessee u63.5
Dogs of the Week
Another nice weekend for moneyline underdogs. Georgia State, Tulsa, and New Mexico bring the total record for the season to +1.0 units. Here are the plays for this weekend:
Virginia +145 over Boston College
Houston +260 over Texas Tech
South Florida +150 over Navy
Coastal Carolina +200 over Georgia Southern
East Carolina +145 over Rice
South Carolina +340 over Tennessee
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!