2023 Week 4 CFB Betting Picks and Preview
A betting preview for Week 4 of the 2023 college football season
This is the week we’ve been waiting for. Thoughts and prayers for anyone attending a fall wedding or going on vacation this weekend, this slate is loaded. We are going to learn who are actual title contenders (Ohio State/Notre Dame, FSU/Clemson, Iowa/Penn State?). We will see if Alabama can get off the matt or if the Saban machine is finally starting to sputter. And on top of all of that, there are 63 FBS games to bet on. Let’s get to the football!
The Picks
Thursday, September 21st
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Georgia State +6.5, Over 62.5
There is no better way to kick off the weekend than with a Fun Belt game on Thursday night. If you like offense, this is the perfect game for you. Coastal Carolina has taken a step back after replacing Jamey Chadwell with Tim Beck. However, the Chanticleers are still led by Grayson McCall, likely the best QB in the Sun Belt. But with a struggling defense, Coastal is going to need to score to keep up with a Georgia State offense that is firing on all cylinders. QB Darren Grainger is a dynamic running QB and showed he can hit big plays through the air against bad defenses last week against Charlotte. I expect to see that again this week against Coastal Carolina. As much as I like taking the points with Georgia State, I think the best play in this game is the over, particularly if you can get it under 63 points.
Friday, September 22nd
Wisconsin at Purdue, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Purdue +6, Under 53.5
Instead of kicking Virginia while they’re down, I will focus on the other Power 5 game on Friday night. Purdue has not had a great start to the year. Last week was an absolute disaster in terms of ball security. The Boilermakers had 6 fumbles in the game and lost 3 of them. The fact that it was only a 15-point game is, frankly, surprising. On the other end of the spectrum, Wisconsin only won by 21 points in a game where they were gifted five interceptions and two fumbles. Turnovers generally even out over the course of the season. If turnover regression comes this week, then Purdue should look better while Wisconsin looks worse. After the first three weeks, I have no confidence in either offense so I expect a low-scoring affair. And in low-scoring games, I want the points and the under. Purdue +6 at home.
Saturday, September 23rd
Florida State at Clemson, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Clemson +2.5, Over 55
Don’t look now but the Clemson offense is starting to figure things out. It could be the case that playing Charleston Southern and FAU is making the Tigers look better than they actually are. That’s probably true. But with a total of 55 points, Clemson doesn’t have to contribute that many points if the Florida State offense continues at its current pace. 45 against, LSU, 66 against Southern Miss, and 31 against Boston College. The Seminoles are going to score. If they score 30, can they hold Clemson to under 25 points? They couldn’t against Boston College and gave up 24 to LSU. I don’t love either side in this game, so I am taking the over.
Ole Miss at Alabama, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Alabama -6.5, Over 55
There has never been a better time to buy low on Alabama than right now. The QB situation is unquestionably a mess, the running game is non-existent, and the defense began to show some cracks against Texas. But is Ole Miss the team to take advantage of that? An Ole Miss team that just let Georgia Tech put up nearly 500 yards of offense a week after getting pushed by a Tulane team missing its starting QB? I don’t think so. Milroe has his deficiencies, but the Ole Miss defense is porous enough to make him look as good as he did against MTSU. And the Alabama defense is much better than anything the Rebels have faced so far this year. I was unwilling to back the Crimson Tide at -7.5, but now that this line has dipped below a TD, laying the points is the best bet in this game.
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest, 5:30 PM CT
Pick: Wake Forest -3.5, Over 60
This is another spot to buy low on a team coming off an uninspiring win over an inferior opponent. Turnovers are part of the game but Old Dominion had two defensive scores last week which kept the game close until Wake Forest stormed back for the win. Take those out and Wake Forest looks much better going into this game against Georgia Tech. To their credit, the Yellowjackets looked pretty good on offense against Ole Miss through the air, although I’m not high on the Ole Miss defense generally, as I mentioned above. But that defense isn’t stopping anyone. I might be too high on the Deacons, but I make Wake Forest 9.5-point favorites in this game. I’m not a believer in this Haynes King resurgence, so I am hammering Wake Forest as a short home favorite.
Buffalo at Louisiana, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Louisiana -9, Under 59
Sometimes there are teams that are playing so poorly that you should just blindly bet on their opponent to beat them handily. Buffalo is one of those teams. The Bulls are 0-3 with a loss to FCS Fordham and blowout losses to Wisconsin and Liberty. This is a bad football team. Louisiana is nothing special but they don’t need to be to beat up on Buffalo. The Cajuns are coming off a big win over UAB and have put up at least 30 points in every game this year. I’m not sure how many points Buffalo scores in this game, but it won’t be enough to stay within two scores of Louisiana. I think this line should be closer to two TDs, so I am confidently laying the points.
Ohio State at Notre Dame, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Notre Dame +3, Over 55.5
I’ve saved the best for last. For my money, this is the game of the weekend in a slate that is loaded from top to bottom. And for my actual money, I’m putting it on the Fighting Irish. We saw Ohio State record a narrow home win in this game last year but these teams moved in opposite directions in the offseason. Ohio State downgraded at QB from CJ Stroud to Kyle McCord while Notre Dame upgraded to Sam Hartman from Tyler Buchner. Granted, the Buckeyes still have a lot of skill position talent. The main concern is on defense where I have not seen anything this year that tells me the Buckeyes will be able to stop a Notre Dame attack that is far more balanced than it was last season. If this was under a FG, I would stay away, but getting the full three points is too good to pass up. I want the points with Notre Dame.
Best Bets
Just want my picks and don’t care about my analysis? This is the section for you. Here are my five favorite spreads and totals to target in Week 2.
Spreads
BYU (+9.5) at Kansas
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (-3.5)
Appalachian State (+3) at Wyoming
Buffalo at Louisiana (-9)
NMSU (+3) at Hawaii
Totals
Georgia Southern at Ball State u61
Louisiana Tech at Nebraska o47
Oklahoma State at Iowa State o36
Nevada at Texas State u59.5
Texas at Baylor o49.5
Dogs of the Week
Another big weekend for moneyline underdogs. Army, Ohio, UNT, and FIU (again) bring the total record for the season to +0.9 units. Here are more plays for this weekend:
Georgia State +200 over Coastal Carolina
Purdue +190 over Wisconsin
Tulsa +160 over NIU
New Mexico +145 over UMass
BYU +290 over Kansas
UCLA +200 over Utah
Oklahoma State +140 over Iowa State
New Mexico State +130 over Hawaii
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!