2023 Week 13 CFB Betting Picks and Preview
A betting preview for Week 13 of the 2023 college football season
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! It’s the final week of the college football regular season which means it is Rivalry Week! For some teams, this week will decide whether or not they get to play for a conference, or national, title. For the vast majority of the sport, this week offers a chance to beat your rival and earn an entire offseason, or potentially a lifetime, of bragging rights, which is arguably worth more than a conference championship appearance. No other sport combines both stakes and passion into the final week of the season like college football does. All of my picks for this week’s games are in the following table. Below that, you can find a short guide to the conference championship scenarios for each conference.
The Picks
Best Bets
No pick descriptions this week so here are my five favorite spreads and totals to target in Week 13.
Spreads
Iowa (+2.5) at Nebraska
Texas A&M (+11.5) at LSU
UConn at UMass (+2.5)
SJSU at UNLV (-2.5)
California at UCLA (-9)
Totals
TCU at Oklahoma u63.5
Oregon State at Oregon u62.5
Tulsa at ECU o44.5
Washington State at Washington u68.5
Iowa State at Kansas State o46
Dogs of the Week
Tough week for underdogs last week as my picks went 2-6. For the final week of the season, I’ve gone big with 10 picks!
Iowa +120 over Nebraska
UTSA +150 over Tulane
Texas Tech +430 over Texas
Kentucky +240 over Louisville
Texas A&M +350 over LSU
UMass +110 over UConn
Colorado +950 over Utah
Northwestern +180 over Illinois
Florida +200 over Florida State
Hawaii +180 over Colorado State
Conference Championship Scenarios
Four conferences have already been decided. Those conferences are:
ACC - Florida State vs Louisville
CUSA - New Mexico State at Liberty
MAC - Toledo vs Miami-OH
SEC - Georgia vs Alabama
AAC
The AAC is relatively simple. SMU, Tulane, and UTSA are all undefeated in conference play. SMU plays Navy while Tulane hosts UTSA.
The winner of the Tulane - UTSA game is in
If SMU beats Navy, they are also in
If SMU loses, the highest “computer composite” ranked team will advance. That is likely the loser of the Tulane - UTSA game setting up a rematch.
Big Ten
There is only one game of consequence in the Big Ten title race.
Iowa has already clinched the East division and will play for a Big Ten title
The winner of Ohio State - Michigan will win the West division and face Iowa
Big 12
Currently, no team has secured a spot in the championship game. The Big 12 conference doesn’t even know how its tiebreakers work, but here is the simplest explanation of possible outcomes.
If Texas beats Texas Tech, the Longhorns are in
In this scenario, an Oklahoma State win over BYU puts the Cowboys in the title game as well
If Oklahoma State also loses, Oklahoma can advance with a win over TCU
If both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma lose, Kansas State is in with a win over Iowa State
If Texas loses, it can still get in if two of Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State lose.
It is unclear what would happen if there is a three-way or four-way tie for first place.
As I understand it, the only way for Texas to miss the championship game is a Texas loss plus a Kansas State loss (and Oklahoma State and Oklahoma wins). This would leave Texas out and see a Bedlam rematch in the title game
Mountain West
Just like in the AAC, tiebreakers in the Mountain West are decided by a computer composite ranking. This may or may not matter depending on the outcome of two games: SJSU at UNLV and Air Force at Boise State.
If UNLV wins, they are in the title game
The Rebels would play the winner of the Air Force - Boise State game
If UNLV loses, there will be a three-way tie for first place with UNLV, SJSU, and the winner of Air Force - Boise State
UNLV is likely in the title game regardless
If Boise State wins, they would likely rank ahead of SJSU
If Air Force wins, I think it would be Air Force, but it is closer than Boise State/SJSU
Pac-12
Washington has already secured a spot in the championship game. The remaining spot can be filled by one of two teams.
Oregon is in with a win over Oregon State OR an Arizona State win over Arizona
Arizona can only go the the title game with a win over Arizona State and an Oregon loss to Oregon State
Sun Belt
With JMU ineligible for the conference championship, Troy will face either Appalachian State or Coastal Carolina.
Coastal Carolina advances with a win over JMU OR an Appalachian State loss to Georgia Southern
Appalachian State can only get in with a win and Coastal Carolina loss
Both teams losing would put Coastal Carolina in the championship game
So there you have it! Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!