2023 Week 12 CFB Betting Picks and Preview
A betting preview for Week 12 of the 2023 college football season
Despite ESPN’s best efforts, the NCAA denied James Madison’s waiver for postseason eligibility which has really taken the shine off the College Gameday visit. It’s a bye week for most of the SEC which concentrates most of the major matchups in the ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12. As always, I have picks for every game on the schedule. Next week, I will also break down the remaining conference title races that can be impacted by the final week of the regular season. Let’s get to the football!
The Picks
Saturday, November 18th
Louisville at Miami, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Louisville +0.5, Over 46.5
Tyler van Dyke is back at QB for the Hurricanes which means it is time to fade Miami once again. It’s been a roller coaster of a season for TVD. Clearly, the high of the season was his performance against Texas A&M in week 2. Since then, he’s been so bad that he was benched in favor of a true freshman, but is now back in the starting role after Emory Williams was knocked out for the remainder of the season. This is a recipe for disaster going up against a Louisville defense that has been excellent in conference play. I don’t think Louisville is as good as their ranking suggests but they are certainly better than this version of Miami. Yet, depending on where you look, Miami is favored in this game. At worst, they are a 1-point underdog. That is not giving the Cardinals enough respect, so I’m laying/taking the point with Louisville. I’ll play the over on the total as well, but only if it remains below the key number of 47.
Georgia at Tennessee, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Georgia -10.5, Under 59
Another week, another opportunity for Georgia to completely destroy an overrated SEC opponent. Last week, it was Ole Miss who, as expected, couldn’t score against the Georgia defense and couldn’t stop the Missouri run game. That sounds eerily similar to what happened in Missouri’s beatdown of Tennessee last week when the Volunteers scored just 7 points and gave up over 250 rushing yards. And that Missouri team lost by 9 points to Georgia just one week earlier. I feel very confident in Georgia and would lay the points up to 14. The bigger question in this game is on the total. Georgia put up 52 points last week in their win over the Rebels. I think Tennessee’s defense is marginally better than Ole Miss, so I think they can hold Georgia closer to 40 points. I expect Georgia’s defense to repeat their performance from last week and hold Tennessee under 20 points, so I am also on the under.
UCLA at USC, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: USC -6.5, Under 65.5
Chip Kelly is reportedly on his way out as UCLA’s head coach. That news comes after UCLA lost in embarrassing fashion to Arizona State last weekend. Neither the loss nor the potential lame-duck coach inspires much confidence in the Bruins heading into a rivalry game against USC. The Trojans didn’t look improved on defense a week after firing Alex Grinch, but they didn’t look worse either. If there is one unit you can trust in this game, it is the USC offense. Despite a disappointing season and a horrible defense, Caleb Williams continues to lead a high-scoring offense capable of scoring on even the best defenses. My respect for UCLA’s defense keeps me from taking the over in this game, but my aversion to the Bruins’ offense has me backing the Trojans. At under a TD, lay the points with USC.
Kansas State at Kansas, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Kansas State -10, Over 57.5
In the Sunflower Showdown, there are two ways the game can go: Kansas State can win by a little or Kansas State can win by a lot. Those have been the only two options over the last 14 years between these two schools. Recently, it has been the Wildcats by a lot. Over the last four years, Kansas State has won by an average of 28.5 points. The double-digit win streak will continue this year with Kansas rolling out their third-string QB on offense. With Bean under center, it was conceivable that Kansas could get into a shootout and try to take advantage of a Kansas State defense that is relatively weak. With Ballard running the offense, the Jayhawks are hopelessly outgunned, especially when the Kansas defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone all season. If you watched Kansas State dismantle Baylor last week, expect more of the same on Saturday night against Kansas. Lay the points and take the over.
Texas at Iowa State, 7:00 PM CT
Pick: Iowa State +7.5, Over 46
Is Texas a more talented team than Iowa State? Yes. That can be said of pretty much every Texas opponent. The Longhorns have been more talented than TCU, Kansas State, and Houston, but that hasn’t stopped all three of those teams from staying within a TD of Texas. Will playing with fire eventually burn Texas? Probably. And it could happen as soon as Saturday night. Texas will be without its best offensive weapon (Jonathon Brooks) and clearly has issues in the back seven on defense. Iowa State isn’t uniquely built to take advantage of the holes in the secondary, but QB Rocco Becht is at least as good of a passer as Will Howard who forced overtime against Texas. Getting over a TD at home is too much to pass on, so I would take the points with the Cyclones.
Best Bets
Just want my picks and don’t care about my analysis? This is the section for you. Here are my five favorite spreads and totals to target in Week 12.
Spreads
Coastal Carolina (-3) at Army
North Carolina (+7.5) at Clemson
Oklahoma State (-6.5) at Houston
Old Dominion at Georgia Southern (-5.5)
Kansas State (-9.5) at Kansas
Totals
Colorado at Washington State o60.5
North Texas at Tulsa u69.5
Illinois at Iowa o32
Marshall at South Alabama o47
Georgia State at LSU u73.5
Dogs of the Week
Tough week for underdogs last week as my picks went 2-6. Looking to get back on track this week with eight more plays!
Michigan State +145 over Indiana
Memphis +270 over SMU
Nevada +400 over Colorado State
Arkansas State +150 over Texas State
North Carolina +250 over Clemson
Marshall +310 over South Alabama
Syracuse +200 over Georgia Tech
Iowa State +250 over Texas
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!
thanks Connor! following with Louisville and Michigan St, opposing you with Army over coastal Good Luck!