2023 Week 11 Mid-Week CFB Betting Preview
A betting preview for the mid-week portion of Week 11 of the 2023 college football season
We’re back with another week of MAC football! Betting on the MAC is often volatile and last week was no exception. Everything from the quality of play to the weather can be highly varied from game to game and from week to week. But that’s what makes it interesting. And that’s all we can ask for to fill the time between Saturdays.
Week 11 Mid-Week Picks
Tuesday, November 7th
Ball State at NIU, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Ball State +9.5, Under 44
Has Ball State finally found a workable solution on offense? The first half of the season was a nightmare with a rotating cast of characters under center. However, in the last two weeks, Ball State has basically transitioned to running the option with QB Kiael Kelly and RB Marquez Cooper. A gameplan that completely eschews the pass will actually line up perfectly against an NIU defense that has been incredible against passing attacks but is getting gashed on the ground. It should also keep the Ball State defense off the field which can only help given how bad the Cardinals have been on that side of the ball. I would love to play this line at 10 or above, but it looks to have settled at 9.5. I’m still willing to play at that number, so I will take the points with Ball State.
Wednesday, November 8th
Bowling Green at Kent State, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: BGSU -9, Over 40.5
Well, we tried. I backed Kent State in the one place it made sense to do so and the Golden Flashes completely fell apart down the stretch to take the loss. To make matters worse, leading WR Chrishon McCray, the one source of offense for Kent State, is out for the remainder of the season with an injury. Bowling Green has been solid defensively so far this season and now gets to let the offense loose on a Kent State defense that is letting anyone and everyone score at will. I don’t see how Kent State keeps this game within two possessions, so laying the points with the Eagles is the right play. I would stay away from the total. I’m technically on the over, but Bowling Green is a run-first team and I don’t know how Kent State will score without McCray in the lineup.
Thursday, November 9th
Virginia at Louisville, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Louisville -20.5, Under 50.5
For a brief moment, Virginia was the hottest team in the ACC after taking Miami to OT a week after beating North Carolina. They followed that up by returning home and getting smashed by Georgia Tech (who, to be fair, was also coming off a win over North Carolina). It’s concerning that the Virginia defense allowed the Yellow Jackets to roll up over 500 yards of offense and score 45 points. It’s equally concerning that the Virginia offense only mustered 17 points against a bad Georgia Tech defense. That can only get worse against Louisville. I think the Cardinals might be a tad overrated. They’re good but they’re not so good they can’t lose to inferior teams (Pitt). In my eyes, Virginia is closer to the Virginia Tech team that Louisville crushed by 31 points last weekend than they are to the Pitt team that beat the Cardinals earlier this year. At under three TDs, lay the points with Louisville.
Dogs of the (Mid)Week
Despite ample opportunity to win the game, Kent State could not hold on to secure a moneyline win to kick off mid-week MACtion. I probably should have kept my expectations in check given that Kent State is now 1-8 on the year. Undeterred, I have more moneyline plays for this week.
Ball State +280 over NIU
Buffalo +250 over Ohio
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!
thanks, Connor! Following you with Ball St and Buffalo. Dont forget the ml parlay!