2023 Week 11 CFB Betting Picks and Preview
A betting preview for Week 11 of the 2023 college football season
After going a perfectly average 8-8 in the midweek contests, its time to turn our attention to the weekend. Big games in the Pac-12 and SEC dominate the slate, but the matchup between Michgan and the Big 10, I mean Penn State, will steal all of the headlines. And keep an eye on the AAC, where there is a three-way tie for first place, and the Big 12 with a five-way tie for third. Let’s get to the football!
The Picks
Saturday, November 11th
Michigan at Penn State, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Michigan -4.5, Under 45
Don’t get distracted by the sign-stealing circus that may or may not result in Jim Harbaugh missing this game. It’s never ideal to be missing your head coach, but I don’t think that matters for the game on Saturday. If anything, it may galvanize a Wolverines team that probably doesn’t need any extra motivation. Penn State will be their toughest test so far, especially on defense. The problem for the Nittany Lions is on offense. We’ve see what happens when Penn State plays a good defense (a 20-12 loss to Ohio State). Can the Penn State defense hold the Michigan offense down enough to keep this game competitive? Probably. That’s why I am on the under. But I don’t see a path to Penn State scoring enough points to win this game or cover a short line. If the Harbaugh suspension moves this line closer to a FG, I will take it, but I am happy to play it at -4.5 as well.
Utah at Washington, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Washington -8.5, Over 49.5
Which Utah will be taking the field on Saturday afternoon? Is it the one that beat USC? Or is it the one that got humiliated the following week against Oregon? Or maybe its the one that torched Arizona State last week. It’s tough to tell. There’s at least some consistency out of Washington. If there is one thing I think you can count on in this game, it is points. Washington is good at scoring, but not good at keeping others from scoring. Against the good teams on their schedule, Utah has also been bad at stopping opposing offenses. I don’t see Utah keeping pace in a shootout, so I’m laying the points with the Huskies. I’m also on the over, even though the total has crossed 49. I see Washington scoring at least 30 points, so Utah just needs a few scores of their own to get over the total.
Ole Miss at Georgia, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Georgia -10.5, Over 58
What do Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M all have in common? They all lost to Ole Miss by one score. Those teams are collectively 10-14 in conference play and 19-17 overall. In other words, Ole Miss is a few bounces away from being tied for last in the SEC West rather than ranked in the top 10 in the country. If there is a team built to expose Ole Miss as a fraud, its Georgia, the top-ranked team in the country. One one side of the ball, Lane Kiffin will need to figure out how to move the ball against a great defense, even though he couldn’t do it against Alabama earlier this year. On the other side, an Ole Miss defense that just gave up 28 points to a Texas A&M offense with a backup QB is expected to improve going up against Georgia? I don’t see it. Alabama beat Ole Miss by 14 earlier this year and there is no reason to expect Georgia to not match that result. Lay the points with confidence with the Bulldogs.
Rice at UTSA, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: UTSA -13.5, Over 57
I have not written much about UTSA this year, despite picking them as one of my favorite teams in the AAC. Part of that was due to an abysmal 1-3 start for the Roadrunners. Since then, UTSA is 5-0 and have scored over 36 points in every game. As expected in the preseason, Frank Harris is dominating the AAC even after making the step up in competition from CUSA. Now, UTSA gets a Rice team that may be without JT Daniels. Daniels missing time is all the more unfortunate as it appeared that the Owls had turned a corner with narrow losses to Tulane and SMU, two of the best teams in the conference, in back-to-back weeks. This would have been another tough matchup, but without Daniels, Rice is unlikely to be competitive in this game. At under two TDs, lay the points with UTSA.
USC at Oregon, 9:30 PM CT
Pick: Oregon -15.5, Under 76
It’s a late kickoff on the West Coast but CFB fans will want to stay up to see if the USC defense can improve after getting out from under the direction of Alex Grinch. In their last game, the USC offense was excellent against Washington but failed to stop the Huskies from putting up 50 points of their own. Of course, Oregon also struggled to keep Washington off the board in their close loss earlier this year. Then again, Washington was equally bad at preventing Oregon from scoring, and the Ducks look to be gaining strength every week with dominant wins over Cal and Utah. The spread is large, and its tough to bet against Caleb Williams, but I like Oregon to roll over a USC defense that is unlikely to see the kind of improvement needed to stop the Ducks in just one week. If you believe in the Trojans, consider playing the under as this total is creeping closer and closer to an untenable 80 points.
Best Bets
Just want my picks and don’t care about my analysis? This is the section for you. Here are my five favorite spreads and totals to target in Week 11.
Spreads
Old Dominion at Liberty (-13.5)
New Mexico State (+4.5) at Western Kentucky
Cincinnati at Houston (-2.5)
San Diego State (+3.5) at Colorado State
Florida (+14.5) at LSU
Totals
Arizona at Colorado o54.5
Oklahoma State at UCF u65.5
Rutgers at Iowa o28.5
ECU at FAU o44.5
Iowa State at BYU o41
Dogs of the Week
Yikes! Last week went 0-4 on underdogs and only Kansas State was within three scores of their opponent. That’s not ideal. Looking to get back on track this week with eight more plays!
Nebraska +110 over Maryland
Temple +245 over South Florida
Colorado +300 over Arizona
Syracuse +125 over Pitt
NMSU +180 over WKU
SDSU +150 over Colorado State
Florida +550 over LSU
BYU +270 over Iowa State
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!
thanks Connor, following you with Nebraska and on the other side with Penn St. Good luck!