2023 Week 10 CFB Betting Picks and Preview
A betting preview for Week 10 of the 2023 college football season
With the calendar turning to November, the weather is cooling down and conference races are heating up. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Big 12 where there is currently a five-way tie for first place. That will be resolved this weekend as Kansas State travels to Austin and Oklahoma foes to Stillwater for the annual Bedlam game. There’s also an under-the-radar matchup in Tuscaloosa that will decide whether or not Nick Saban can return to the top of the SEC West. And if none of that appeals to you, there are 50 other games to choose from this Saturday! Let’s get to the football!
The Picks
Saturday, November 4th
Kansas State at Texas, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Kansas State +3.5, Over 50
There’s a good chance we see at least three quarterbacks in this game (with an outside chance at a fourth if we see Arch Manning). Of those three QBs, is Malik Murphy third? He’s certainly behind Will Howard. He’s also probably behind Avery Johnson based on what we’ve seen in each player’s limited playing time. Texas has more overall talent, but that only goes so far with a disadvantage at the most important position on the field. Vegas isn’t buying the big win over BYU last week and I’m not either. Take the points with the Wildcats on the road.
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Coastal Carolina +1, Under 51.5
Old Dominion being favored in this football game is an extreme overreaction to Grayson McCall being ruled out for Coastal Carolina. At full health, I think Coastal Carolina would be favored by at least a TD, even on the road. McCall isn’t worth seven points. In fact, I don’t think Caleb Williams or Drake Maye are worth a full TD on the spread. Besides, we’ve seen what the Chanticleers look like when backup Jared Guest is under center. Last week, Coastal Carolina scored 34 points in a rout of Marshall. Old Dominion has been surprisingly strong against the run but has been one of the worst teams in the country against the pass. The wrong team is favored in this game. Back the Chanticleers as short underdogs.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Oklahoma -6, Over 62
A month ago, it seemed unlikely that the final installment of the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State rivalry would impact the Big 12 title race or even be competitive. Fast forward through October and the Cowboys have won four straight conference games while Oklahoma lost to Kansas after narrowly avoiding a loss to UCF. With two teams trending in opposite directions, Oklahoma State is a trendy upset pick this weekend. That means we are getting Oklahoma at a discount. Neither team in this game has had much trouble scoring points, nor has either team shown any interest in playing defense. This should be a high-scoring affair that benefits a Sooners team with a much better QB in Dillon Gabriel. As much as I like Ollie Gordon in this matchup, he won’t be enough to beat the Sooners on his own. I would lay the points with Oklahoma at anything under a TD.
LSU at Alabama, 6:45 PM CT
Pick: Alabama -3, Under 61.5
LSU might be the most overrated team in the country. Against the two best teams on their schedule, the Tigers lost in a shootout to Ole Miss and got blown out by Florida State. That Seminoles team is also the best defense the Tigers have faced this year and they were held to just 24 points. For as bad as Alabama has looked on offense this year, the Crimson Tide still boasts an incredible defense. And the offense will receive a definitive boost playing against an LSU team that has let anyone with a pulse score at will. Alabama’s offense has been boom or bust all season and this is definitely a week to expect a boom. On the other hand, expect LSU to struggle to find the end zone like they did in the season opener. Lay the points with Alabama but take the under.
Best Bets
Just want my picks and don’t care about my analysis? This is the section for you. Here are my five favorite spreads and totals to target in Week 10.
Spreads
Arkansas at Florida (-3.5)
Georgia Tech (+1.5) at Virginia
USF at Memphis (-13.5)
Coastal Carolina (+1) at Old Dominion
MTSU at NMSU (-3)
Totals
Nebraska at Michigan State o34.5
FAU at UAB u59
Tulane at ECU o45.5
Georgia Southern at Texas State u69
Washington at USC u77
Dogs of the Week
Last week was an amazing week for moneyline underdogs. 4-2 on the week for +8.9 units! All four wins had lines greater than +220. I don’t have as many big underdogs that I like this week but I still have four plays I’m making.
Kansas State +150 over Texas
Virginia Tech +295 over Louisville
Marshall +140 over Appalachian State
BYU +390 over West Virginia
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!
Thank you, Connor. Following you with Florida and opposite you with Oklahoma st. Good Luck!