2023 Conference Championship CFB Betting Picks and Preview
A betting preview for the conference championship games of the 2023 college football season
The end of the college football season is in sight. Coaches are getting hired and fired, players are entering the transfer portal, and bowl game matchups are already being announced. It feels like the Week 0 matchups that kicked off the season were just days ago and now the season is wrapping up with alarming speed. We still have one more semi-normal week of football as all 10 conferences will play their championship games this weekend. Unlike in years passed, this weekend will have a significant impact on which teams make the College Football Playoff. Coupled with upcoming conference realignment, the stakes this weekend couldn’t be higher. Let’s get to the football!
The Picks
Friday, December 1st
CUSA: NMSU at Liberty, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Liberty -10.5, Under 58
Conference Championship Week starts in Conference USA where two programs who are brand new to the conference will compete for the title. New Mexico State, winners of their last eight football games, including a win over Auburn, will travel to Lynchburg, VA, to play an undefeated Liberty team. If this matchup sounds familiar, it is because we’ve already seen these two teams play this year. NMSU visited Liberty on September 9th and watched as the Flames rolled up over 500 yards of offense and won by 16 points. There is no reason to expect a different result on Friday night. The key matchup in this game is the Liberty rushing attack against a porous Aggie rush defense. While NMSU has almost certainly improved since the last matchup, Liberty is also getting stronger as they are averaging 325 rush yards and 45 points over their past five games. I like Liberty to win by two TDs in this game and would lay the points. Consider playing the under as well. While Liberty has run up the score in recent weeks, both teams play at extremely slow tempos (bottom-20 in the country) and both teams rely heavily on the ground game. The total has crept upwards recently, so waiting until closer to kickoff might be the best option. I would play this down to 56.5.
Pac-12: Oregon vs Washington, 7:00 PM CT
Pick: Oregon -9, Under 65.5
The CUSA Championship won’t be the only rematch on Friday night. Oregon and Washington are set to square off again in the Pac-12 championship (in Las Vegas) after Washington edged out a narrow home victory in mid-October. Despite winning the first game, Washington is a 9-point underdog and that still might be too generous for the Huskies. For starters, one team is clearly playing better football over the past two months. While Washington has just one double-digit win since playing the Ducks, a 10-point win over USC, Oregon has only failed to beat one team by fewer than double digits, also USC. And it’s not due to competition. Both Washington and Oregon have played the exact same schedule except for one game with Washington beating Stanford and Oregon beating Cal. Besides, Oregon was arguably the better team the first time this game was played, even if it left with a loss. Even with home-field advantage and holding the Ducks to 0-3 on fourth down, Washington needed Oregon to miss a field goal that would have sent the game to overtime. This game won’t come down to a field goal as Oregon will beat Washington by two scores. With the spread falling below 10, lay the points with the Ducks.
Saturday, December 2nd
Big 12: Oklahoma State vs Texas, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Oklahoma State +15.5, Over 55
If not for UNLV and NMSU, Oklahoma State might be the most surprising team to make the conference championship game. The Cowboys got off to a horrible start which included losses to South Alabama (at home) and Iowa State. Then Mike Gundy discovered Ollie Gordon. Despite not taking over as the lead running back until Week 4, Gordon leads the NCAA in rushing. That includes a five-TD performance last time out against BYU. This will be the toughest matchup yet though as Texas boasts one of the strongest rush defenses in the country. But if there is anyone in the Big 12 that can scheme up a way to score points, it is Mike Gundy. With that being said, the Oklahoma State defense might be problematic. While the Cowboys are averaging 33 points per game since installing Gordon at running back, they are giving up 30 points a game to opponents. And Texas has the skill position talent to take advantage. The spread is too big to lay the points with the Longhorns, so look to play the total instead. In the final installment of the Big 12 that includes Oklahoma and Texas, it is only fitting that the conference championship game be decided in a shootout. Play the over 55.
MAC: Toledo vs Miami-OH, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Miami-OH +7.5, Over 44
The MAC championship game will feature yet another rematch as Miami-OH will look to avenge a four-point loss to Toledo earlier this season. That game wasn’t just a loss for the RedHawks, it also resulted in a season-ending injury to their starting QB, Brett Gabbert. Miami-OH has won all four games since backup QB Aveon Smith has taken over, albeit with substantially less offensive production. The X-factor for the RedHawks on offense is WR Gage Larvadain. He’s reportedly a game-time decision. If he plays, I like Miami-OH to keep this game close. If not, Toledo could run away with it as the Rockets boast the best offense in the conference by a wide margin. The defense is a concern, however. In the past three weeks, Toledo has given up 17 points to CMU, 23 to EMU, and 31 to Bowling Green. None of those offenses are scarier than Miami-OH, so I expect the RedHawks to score with or without Larvadain. I am on the over 44 in the MAC championship game.
Mountain West: Boise State vs UNLV, 2:00 PM CT
Pick: Boise State -2.5, Under 60.5
I’m not sure what to make of the Mountain West Championship. On one side, you have a UNLV team that won 9 games this year after going 5-7 last season. Despite a mediocre defense, the offense has some legitimate playmakers in WR Ricky White and RBs Jai’Den Thomas and Vincent Davis. Yet, with a conference championship title on the line, the Rebels lost to San Jose State and got in via computer composite average. On the other side, you have a Boise State team that is returning to the MWC title game despite a rocky end to the season. The Broncos lost their best WR to the transfer portal, fired their head coach, and still went 3-0 down the stretch to lock up a spot in the championship. They’ve done so on the strength of their running attack behind RB Ashton Jeanty. As much as I like UNLV’s Ricky White, Ashton Jeanty is the best player in this game. In fact, Jeanty might be the best RB to take the field this weekend. I understand the appeal of the over in this game since neither team is very good defensively. However, both teams are pretty average in terms of pace, so I would rather just back the more talented team and lay the points with the Broncos as a short favorite.
Sun Belt: Appalachian State at Troy, 3:00 PM CT
Pick: Troy -5, Under 53.5
It is unfortunate that, for the second year in a row, the Sun Belt Championship will not feature the two best teams in the conference. As has been well publicized, James Madison is not eligible for the title game because they are making the jump up from FCS to FBS. That means Appalachian State gets the opportunity to face Troy, the defending Sun Belt champions, in the championship game. Last year, we saw Troy dismantle a Coastal Carolina team that was better than this year’s Appalachian State team. I would not be surprised to see a similar result this year. Troy’s defense is once again the strength of the team as they have not given up more than 24 points to any team in conference play this year. Even their lone conference loss, to James Madison, naturally, was a narrow 16-14 defeat. I think the spread in this game is efficiently priced, so I don’t have a play on the side. I would lean Troy but it is not a strong lean. I would rather play the total in this game and bank on the most dominant unit on either side of the ball: the Troy defense. I am playing the under 53.5 and would play down to 52.5
SEC: Georgia vs Alabama, 3:00 PM CT
Pick: Georgia -5.5, Over 55
Do I love the idea of betting against Nick Saban in an SEC title game? No. But there is no other choice in this game. For all the questions around Georgia entering the season, the Bulldogs have steamrolled everyone they’ve played and appear to be peaking at the right time. I’m not sure the questions about Alabama have ever been answered. What is the best win by the Crimson Tide this year? Probably a 14-point win over an LSU team that we now know is more interested in padding Jayden Daniels’ stats than actually winning football games. I have a hard time seeing Jalen Milroe rush for 155 yards and 4 TDs against the Georgia defense this weekend. On the other hand, I can see Georgia’s offense having a ton of success against the Alabama defense. The Tide are consistently giving up 20+ points a game, even against bad offenses like Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. Pair that with a Georgia offense that hasn’t scored fewer than 30 points since late September and we are looking at a high-scoring game, at least from the Bulldogs. I love the over in this game and am comfortable laying the points with Georgia at anything under a TD.
AAC: SMU at Tulane, 3:00 PM CT
Pick: SMU +3, Over 47
Tulane looks poised to repeat as AAC champions this year if they can get past an SMU team having its most successful season in 40 years. Both teams are undefeated in conference play which should set the stage for a very competitive matchup on Saturday afternoon. SMU will be without starting QB Preston Stone who broke his leg last week against Navy. That is certainly a concern for the Mustangs, but backup QB Kevin Jennings played well enough in relief duty this year to inspire some confidence that there won’t be a major dropoff. I am more concerned about injuries to the Tulane receiving corps. Tulane is almost entirely dependent on the passing game, so missing either one of Jha’Quan Jackson or Lawrence Keys III would be tough to overcome. Despite some offensive uncertainty for both teams, I think you can bet the over in this game with some confidence. The Mustangs have scored at least 30 points in all but one game this year including games where Stone was injured. And Tulane’s ineffective run game should force the Green Wave to pass which should lead to more points. I would take SMU and the points if pressed but would rather just play the total.
ACC: Louisville vs Florida State, 7:00 PM CT
Pick: Florida State -1.5, Over 46.5
Louisville football in Year 1 under Jeff Brohm has unquestionably been a success. The Cardinals have just two losses this year, admittedly bad losses to Pitt and Kentucky, and find themselves in the ACC championship game. But as they showed in the losses, this Louisville team is a far cry from being a team that could compete with a full-strength Florida State team. Granted, Florida State is not at full strength. Without the injury to QB Jordan Travis, the Seminoles would be favored by at least a TD. While Jordan Travis is very good, is he worth six points to the spread? Not in my opinion. I think you can make an argument for three or four points, but that would still leave Florida State favored by a FG or more. The Seminoles are more talented at almost every position on the field, so we are getting a discount due to the Travis injury. Lay the points with Florida State and prepare to bet against them in the first round of the CFP.
Big Ten: Michigan vs Iowa, 7:00 PM CT
Pick: Michigan -21.5, Over 35
This might be the toughest game on the slate to handicap. How many points can Iowa realistically be expected to score in this game? It’s almost certainly in the single digits given how bad the Hawkeyes are and how good the Michigan defense is. The real question is how many points can Michigan score? The Wolverines haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard themselves. And the Iowa defense is legitimately very good. Based on the betting lines, the implied final score of this game is 28-7 in favor of Michigan. I don’t love anything in this game, but I have the most confidence in Michigan getting to 28 points before Iowa gets anywhere near a TD. As a result, my “favorite” play in this game is laying the points with Michigan, even with the inflated spread. I’m inclined to take the over as well, mostly because the margin for error with such a low total is non-existent. Then again, Iowa hasn’t had a game go over this total since the end of September. Bet this game at your own risk.
Best Bets
There are only 10 games this week, but here are my five favorite spreads and totals to target during Conference Championship Week.
Spreads
Louisville vs Florida State (-1.5)
Oregon (-9) vs Washington
NMSU at Liberty (-10.5)
Georgia (-5.5) vs Alabama
Oklahoma State (+15.5) vs Texas
Totals
Georgia vs Alabama o55
SMU at Tulane o47
Oklahoma State vs Texas o55
NMSU at Liberty u57.5
App. State at Troy u53.5
Dogs of the Week
I only went 4-6 on underdog moneylines last week, but that was enough to be in plus territory as Iowa, Northwestern, Hawaii, and Kentucky all secured wins. I’m only backing a handful of underdogs this week, so the moneyline plays are self-explanatory.
Oklahoma State +500 over Texas
Miami-OH +240 over Toledo
SMU +130 over Tulane
So there you have it! Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!