Week 5 of college football is here! After an exciting Week 4, this weekend’s schedule is loaded with high-profile games. However, college football isn’t the only important thing going on this weekend. It’s Fat Bear Week! 747 will be looking to defend his title and he should be considered the favorite at this point in the competition. He will have some stiff competition from the other side of the bracket though. In Friday’s matchups, I like 132 Spring Cub to knock off 128 Grazer and 151 Walker to upset 32 Chunk. Regardless of who emerges from the left side of the bracket, I’m taking 747 to win it all. Now that we are all caught up on Fat Bear Week, let’s get to the football.
The Picks
Friday, October 1st
Iowa @ Maryland, 7:00 PM CT
Pick: Maryland +3.5, Under 48
It’s time for Iowa to prove it can score points when it needs to. Iowa’s defense has been great, but eventually, the reliance on turnovers and defensive touchdowns is going to catch up to the Hawkeyes. Maryland will be the best offense Iowa has faced thus far, and I don’t think Iowa has enough offense to put this game out of reach. I’m taking the points with Maryland at home on a Friday night.
Saturday, October 2nd
Arkansas @ Georgia, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Georgia -17.5, Under 48.5
How much of Arkansas’ win last week was due to a backup QB getting the start for Texas A&M? If you’re an Arkansas fan, you better hope it’s not much. Georgia has an even better defense than what Texas A&M put on the field in addition to an offense that has been cooking lately. While I expect this to be a lower-scoring game potentially allowing the Razorbacks to cover, I think Arkansas gets humbled this weekend by the Bulldogs.
Minnesota @ Purdue, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Purdue -2.5, Under 47.5
Purdue is not a great team, but they aren’t coming off of a loss to Bowling Green like Minnesota is. While the loss of Ibraheem at running back was big, Minnesota has problems all over the field, especially in the passing game. Purdue has a rotating cast of characters on offense, but they have at least appeared competent at various points this year. I really like the under in this game and will also be laying the points with Boilermakers.
Texas @ TCU, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: TCU +4, Under 65
This line stinks. On the surface, this line would be expected to be far bigger after Texas demolished Texas Tech and TCU lost to SMU. Texas appears to be dealing with some key injuries and you Gary Patterson has had Texas’ number since he joined the Big 12. I don’t like to go against the market when Vegas sets an unexpected line, so I will take the points with TCU. While both of these teams were in high-scoring matchups last week, I’m taking the under with the expectation that the teams regress back to more normal scoring levels.
Cincinnati @ Notre Dame, 1:30 PM CT
Pick: Notre Dame +1.5, Under 50.5
This is the game that Cincinnati has been waiting for. After beating Indiana, a win here could make the Bearcats a legitimate contender for the college football playoff. However, Notre Dame comes into this contest as one of the hottest teams in the country running away with the game last week against Wisconsin. As much fun as it would be to see Cincinnati win, I think Notre Dame wins this game outright. I will take Notre Dame as a short home underdog.
Ole Miss @ Alabama, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Alabama -14.5, Under 79.5
Too much weight is being placed on last year’s game between Ole Miss and Alabama, and it’s blowing this total out of proportion. While Ole Miss and Matt Corral have been great on offense, the Alabama defense will be far tougher than anything they’ve seen so far. Florida had some success in the run game against Alabama in Week 3, but Ole Miss doesn’t have the same physicality up front to copy that game plan. I think Alabama holds down the Rebel’s offense keeping this game under the total and allowing the Crimson Tide to cover the spread.
Oregon @ Stanford, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Oregon -8, Over 57.5
This line is straight-up disrespectful to the Oregon Ducks. Stanford’s signature win, a victory over USC that led to the firing of Clay Helton, doesn’t look as impressive after USC got beat by Oregon State last week. Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12 by a wide margin. I think this line should be closer to two TDs, so I will definitely lay the points with the Ducks.
Florida @ Kentucky, 5:00 PM CT
Pick: Florida -7.5, Over 55
Count me in as one of the people who were fooled into thinking Kentucky was good earlier this year. Kentucky’s wins this year are over ULM, Chattanooga, Missouri, and South Carolina. The only game decided by less than one score was the season opener against ULM. Florida is much better than anything Kentucky has faced this year and I expect it to show on Saturday. This game could be competitive early, but I expect Florida to win handily much like they did last week against Tennessee.
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Texas A&M -7, Over 46
Texas A&M’s offense got exposed last week against a good Arkansas defense, but the Aggies’ defense continues to look good. Facing a Mississippi State team that struggled last week against LSU could be what it takes to get Zach Calzada back on track. I like the total in this game more than the spread, but I will lay the points with the more talented team in Texas A&M.
Boston College @ Clemson, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Boston College +14.5, Over 46
Clemson has some major problems on offense. The offensive line is struggling to block, the receivers aren’t getting separation, and DJ Uiagalelei does not look comfortable at QB. That being said, Clemson is still very talented and should have enough to beat a Boston College team that is still without Phil Jurkovec. However, covering 14.5 points seems like a tall ask for this Clemson offense so I will take Boston College to keep the game within reach.
Indiana @ Penn State, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Penn State -12.5, Under 53.5
Indiana go incredibly lucky last year in a win over Penn State. This year, Indiana has taken a big step back while Penn State looks like one of the best teams in the Big Ten. Assuming the Nittany Lions can avoid some of the unlucky breaks they experienced last year, Penn State should roll in this game. I like Penn State laying the 12.5 points, but I will also play the under in case this game resembles the Week 1 matchup against Wisconsin.
Auburn @ LSU, 8:00 PM CT
Pick: Auburn +3, Under 57
I think Auburn should be favored in this game. Despite having to survive against Georgia State last week, Auburn has looked like a better team than LSU through this point of the season. Night games in Baton Rouge are always difficult, but LSU has not shown anything this year to make them 3 point favorites. I like Auburn getting the points here.
Arizona State @ UCLA, 9:30 PM CT
Pick: Arizona State +3, Over 55.5
After USC’s loss last weekend, Saturday’s game could decide which of these teams will be the second-best team in the conference. Both teams rebounded with solid conference wins last week after losing to Fresno State and BYU the week prior. With two evenly matched teams, I will take the points in a game that should be closely contested. Sun Devils +3.
Game of the Week Candidates
Ohio @ Akron, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Akron +9.5, Over 55.5
If you thought the Ole Miss vs Alabama game was the marquee afternoon matchup, think again. The 0-4 Ohio Bobcats are going on the road to take on the 1-3 Akron Zips. These two teams are terrible, which is why neither team should be favored by 9.5 points. Take the points with the Zips.
UConn @ Vanderbilt, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: UConn +15, Over 51
Once the Ohio/Akron game wraps up, make sure you flip over to ESPNU to watch the worst team in the SEC (Vanderbilt) play host to possibly the worst team in the FBS (UConn). With how strong the SEC is every year, being the worst team in the league doesn’t necessarily mean you are bad. In this case, Vanderbilt is bad. Similar to the game above, Vanderbilt shouldn’t be laying over two TDs to anyone, even if it is UConn. I’m taking the Huskies to cover.
Other games I’m watching:
Tennessee (+3) @ Missouri, 11:00 AM CT
Lousiville @ Wake Forest (-7), 11:30 AM CT
Troy (+6.5) @ South Carolina, 2:30 PM CT
Syracuse (+5.5) @ Florida State, 2:30 PM CT
Southern Miss (+2) @ Rice, 5:30 PM CT
Washington @ Oregon State (-1.5), 8:00 PM CT
Dogs of the Week
Underdog picks went 0-3 again last week, and two of the games weren’t particularly close. Hoping for some better results this week.
Akron +290 over Ohio
Auburn +145 over LSU
Maryland +140 over Iowa
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!