The penultimate weekend of the college football regular season did not disappoint. As expected, the weekend was a little light on closely-contested P5 games. However, there were quite a few entertaining games in the G5 as well as some surprising results in some top-ranked matchups. Through it all, I posted another great week of betting results. 58% ATS and 60% on totals. In the last three weeks, I am winning at an unsustainable 57% clip. I just need to keep it going for one more week. On the season, I have a 51.7% win percentage ATS and 53% on totals.
The last weekend of the regular season is here which means the conference title races have become very interesting (outside of the SEC and the Sun Belt, that is). Instead of my normal section on games I am interested in, here is a quick recap of the stakes this weekend in every conference race:
ACC
Pitt has already clinched the Coastal division
Wake Forest will go to the championship with a win over Boston College
If Wake loses, NC State will clinch with a win over North Carolina
If both Wake and NC State lose, Clemson would advance to the title game
Big 10
The winner of Ohio State vs Michigan will advance out of the Big 10 East
In the West, Wisconsin advances with a win over Minnesota
If Wisconsin loses and Iowa beats Nebraska, Iowa will advance
If Wisconsin and Iowa both lose, and Purdue beats Indiana, Minnesota goes to the championship game
If Wisconsin, Iowa, and Purdue all lose, Wisconsin emerges as the winner of the West division
Big 12
Oklahoma State is in the title game
Oklahoma will advance with a win over Oklahoma State OR a Baylor loss
Baylor will advance with a win over Texas Tech AND an Oklahoma loss
Conference USA
UTSA has already clinched a championship game appearance
The Roadrunners will play the winner of WKU vs Marshall
MAC
NIU has already clinched a spot in the title game
The Huskies will play the winner of Miami-OH vs Kent State
Mountain West (the most complicated of all conferences)
In the West, San Diego State advances with a win over Boise State or a Fresno State loss
Fresno State will advance with a win over San Jose State and a San Diego State loss
In the Mountain, there are three possible division winners (Air Force, Boise State, and Utah State):
If all three teams win or all three teams lose, Air Force advances to the title game
If only one team wins and the other two lose, that team represents the Mountain division
Utah State will advance with a win, a Boise State win, and an Air Force loss
Boise State will advance with a win, a Utah State win, and an Air Force loss
Air Force will advance with a win, a Boise State win, and a Utah State loss
Pac-12
Utah has clinched a spot in the conference title game
Oregon will advance with a win over Oregon State
If Oregon State wins, the Beavers will advance with a Washington State loss
Washington State will advance with a win over Washington and an Oregon loss
SEC
Alabama and Georgia have already clinched spots in the SEC title game
Sun Belt
Appalachian State and Louisiana have already clinched spots in the Sun Belt championship game
The Futures Report
Checking in on how some of my pre-season predictions are faring after Week 12. With one week to go, I have 69 guaranteed winners compared to 32 guaranteed losses. This secures a winning season overall on team win totals. Here are my thoughts on some of the 29 teams with results still in the balance:
Feeling Better
UCLA o7/Utah o8.5 - Both of these futures looked dead in the water a few weeks ago. While the Pac-12 has had plenty of strange results this year, you have to feel confident in Utah and UCLA securing wins next week against Colorado and Cal, respectively. I’m guaranteed a push with UCLA already, but the win is squarely within reach, regardless of how well Cal played last week against Stanford.
Colorado u4.5/Cal u6/Stanford u4 - Staying in the Pac-12, I already talked about Cal and Colorado above. Cal still has two games remaining with the USC game getting postponed, but it won’t matter if they lose next weekend. I don’t know how this Stanford team beat Oregon, but they haven’t won a game since then. I don’t expect that to change with Notre Dame coming up next.
Boston College u7/Louisville u6.5 - Boston College was unlucky to lose QB Phil Jurkovec to injury, but they’ve had the chance to right the ship since he came back from injury and haven’t done so. Even if he is fully healthy and ready to go, I’m not sure they can beat a Wake Forest team that is looking to rebound after getting crushed by Clemson. Louisville has a legitimate chance to beat Kentucky next weekend if it plays like it has the last two weeks. Granted, Kentucky will be a tougher opponent than Syracuse or Duke, but Kentucky is not a juggernaut, especially on offense.
Feeling Worse
Florida State u5.5 - You have got to be kidding me. After an 0-4 start, which included a loss to FCS Jacksonville State, the Seminoles have come all the way back to threaten this under. In addition, they get to face a Florida team in freefall that just fired its head coach. I already missed on the Florida season win total. Now, I just need the Gators to turn things around for one week and cash this under.
Duke o3.5/Vanderbilt o3 - These are good examples of the risk you take when you bet on bad teams to not be terrible. At the end of the day, these two teams were hurt by losses to teams that should be inferior to P5 schools. Duke lost to Charlotte in the first game of the season and never really threatened to upset anyone in conference play outside of a close loss to Georgia Tech. It was a similar story in Nashville where Vanderbilt lost to East Tennessee State and couldn’t pull out the win against South Carolina to salvage a push.
NMSU u2/UMass o1.5 - In what may be the game of the week, UMass will travel to Las Cruces, NM, to take on NMSU in a game with major consequences (for my win totals). NMSU is coming off two beatdowns against Alabama and Kentucky. Those losses look respectable compared to UMass who lost to FCS Rhode Island and FCS Maine before a loss to Army. I need a UMass win to cash both of these totals, but that looks very unlikely at this point. Hopefully, the announcement of Don Brown as the next head coach will inspire the Minutemen on Saturday.
Week 13 Mid-Week Preview
Thankfully, the final week of the season comes with two MAC games on Tuesday for our pre-Thanksgiving entertainment. Neither game has conference title implications, but the Western Michigan game is important for season win totals. Here are my picks for both games:
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois, Tuesday 6:00 PM CT
Pick: NIU +3.5, Under 62.5
I have the over 6 wins for Western Michigan this season which opens up the opportunity for a nice middle here. Ideally, WMU will find a way to win a close game but allow NIU to cover giving me two wins. In addition, NIU is adept at playing in (and winning) close games. Three points plus the hook is too much to pass up with how well the Huskies have played this year. I also like the under in this game. While WMU has explosive potential on offense, NIU plays at a much more methodical pace. That should limit the number of possessions in this game.
Buffalo @ Ball State, Tuesday 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Buffalo +6.5, Under 58.5
Buffalo played well last week before ultimately losing in overtime to NIU. The defense has been ahead of the offense all year, so the hope here is that the defense does enough to keep the game close. I would prefer to get a full seven points here and probably wouldn’t play this game with the line where it is currently. The total also feels fair in this game, but if I have to take a side, I am taking the under. Buffalo’s offense has had multiple games where the offense has not shown up. If you are taking the points with Buffalo, the under might be a nice hedge against a poor offensive showing.
Keep an eye out on Twitter for updates to my mid-week picks if anything changes. My full Week 13 preview will be up on Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading! Let me know what you think on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Happy Thanksgiving!