We’re off to a great start to Week 12! I went 5-1 ATS and 4-2 on totals in the mid-week. That builds on two straight winning weeks ATS. With rivalry week on the horizon, the slate this weekend is a little light, especially in the P5. However, as I mentioned in the Week 11 recap, there are quite a few G5 games with major consequences that should be entertaining. Let’s get to the football!
The Picks
Friday, November 19th
San Diego State @ UNLV, 10:30 PM CT
Pick: UNLV +10.5, Under 41
If you like points, the nightcap on Friday is not for you. Normally, a total in the 40s is an automatic play on the over for me. However, San Diego State seems content to win while scoring as few points as possible. In 10 games this year, half of the Aztecs’ games have finished with a total under 40. UNLV is on a two-game win streak with wins over New Mexico and Hawaii. San Diego State held both of those opponents to a combined 17 points. I can’t imagine this game getting in the upper 30s. In addition, with a total this low, it will be hard for the Aztecs to blow out UNLV, so I’m taking the points with the Rebels.
Saturday, November 20th
Wake Forest @ Clemson, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Clemson -4.5, Over 56.5
Wake Forest escaped with another conference win last week against NC State, leaving the Demon Deacons one win short of locking up a spot in the ACC title game. Unfortunately, to do so requires winning on the road at Clemson. The Tigers have not had the season many people expected, but they are still a talented team especially on defense. However, the big advantage for Clemson in this game is going up against the Wake Forest defense. All season, Wake Forest has had to depend on its offense to score enough points to make up for their defensive shortcomings. While I expect Wake Forest to score enough to push this total over, I think the Clemson defense is good enough to hand them their second loss of the season. I would play Clemson to -6.
Michigan State @ Ohio State, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Michigan State +19.5, Under 68.5
The race for the Big 10 East is coming down to the wire. While there is currently a logjam at the top of the rankings, it will all resolve itself over the next two weekends. It starts here with Ohio State and Michigan State. The Spartans have exceeded expectations this year which is why Mel Tucker is on the verge of a $95 million contract extension. They’ve done it by playing solid defense and feeding the ball to Heisman-hopeful Kenny Walker III. That might not be enough to beat an Ohio State offense that is really rounding into form. However, it should be enough to keep this game within three scores. Also, a total near 70 in a Big Ten game? Not gonna happen. Take the under.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Iowa State +3.5, Under 59.5
Iowa State is coming off an exciting loss to Texas Tech last weekend (probably not that exciting for Iowa State fans), but this game sets up perfectly for the Cyclones. Oklahoma is coming off their first loss of the season to Baylor, Lincoln Riley is reportedly flirting with the LSU head coaching job, and the QB battle between Spencer Rattler and Caleb Williams may be back in full force. On top of all that, head coach Matt Campbell has made a killing as an underdog in conference play since taking over the Cyclones. This is a perfect spot for the Cyclones to pull off an upset. I’m taking the points in a game where I’m not expecting much offensive success.
Washington @ Colorado, 2:00 PM CT
Pick: Colorado +7, Under 43
This game is not going to get much attention this week, partly because it’s at a weird time and partly because it’s on Pac-12 Network which nobody can watch. Also, neither team is very good. Washington just fired head coach Jimmy Lake, although I don’t think he was the one holding back the Washington offense on Saturdays. Colorado is not a good team, but getting 7 points at home is worth taking against a team in Washington’s position. The best bet in this game is on the under. Neither of these teams have shown the ability to score with regularity. Unless Washington interim coach Bob Gregory decides to completely change offensive identities, expect Washington to continue to struggle when they have the ball.
Old Dominion @ Middle Tennessee State, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: MTSU -3.5, Under 50
Old Dominion won again last week against FAU in a surprisingly lopsided victory, although the result may have been a little bit fluky. Somehow, the Monarchs managed to secure four, two-point plays in one game (two safeties, one two-point conversion, and a blocked extra point returned for a score). That is not repeatable. MTSU is coming off of a 40-point beatdown of FIU. While ODU is a higher quality opponent than the Panthers, MTSU is being undervalued in this game. I think this game should be over a TD, so I am laying the points with MTSU.
UAB @ UTSA, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: UAB +4.5, Under 53.5
For the second week in a row, I am taking the Blazers to knock off a top G5 team. Last week, it was against a very good Marshall team. This week, it will be against an undefeated UTSA. UAB boasts the best defense in the conference along with a top-5 offense. UTSA has a great run game, but if UAB stops it (a big if), the Roadrunners don’t have another calling card. If UTSA does manage to pull out the win, I expect it to be in a close game. For that reason, I am taking the under and the points in the G5 game of the week.
Florida @ Missouri, 3:00 PM CT
Pick: Florida -9, Under 69.5
The wheels have really come off in Gainesville. A week after losing to South Carolina (and firing the DC), Florida came out flat and gave up 52 points to a middling Samford team. That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence as the Gators go on the road to Missouri this weekend. As funny as it would be to see Florida to continue to implode and lose to Missouri, Missouri is not a good team. The defense can’t stop anyone and the offense is one-dimensional. I am concerned that this game could become a shootout like it did last week against Samford, but I’m still taking the under here with the total approaching 70.
Baylor @ Kansas State, 4:30 PM CT
Pick: Kansas State -1, Over 50
I was hoping to be able to get Kansas State as a home underdog this weekend. While Kansas State has looked good in recent weeks, Baylor was coming off a big home upset over Oklahoma. I expected them to be favored in this game and was ready to take the other side. However, it appears the market is in agreement with me and has Kansas State as a short home favorite. Every week, it looks like the issues Kansas State had at the beginning of conference play can be chalked up to injuries and playing all the hard teams first. Now that issues have passed, Kansas State is winning football games again. I like the Wildcats this weekend.
Auburn @ South Carolina, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: South Carolina +7.5, Over 44.5
South Carolina reverted back to form last weekend with a loss to Missouri just one week removed from beating Florida. South Carolina has been very inconsistent week to week which makes it hard to know which team will show up. They will face an equally inconsistent Auburn team on Saturday. After wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss, Auburn lost to Texas A&M before blowing a 28-3 lead to Mississippi State. If that wasn’t bad enough, they will also be without QB Bo Nix. That may not be a huge loss since I don’t think Nix is that good, but it could be enough to keep South Carolina in the game. I can’t lay over a TD with the Tigers, so I’m taking South Carolina plus the points.
Virginia Tech @ Miami, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Virginia Tech +7.5, Under 56
Miami is the better team in this game. However, they were also the better team last week when they lost to Florida State. Historically, Miami teams have not responded well after losing to Florida State teams, especially ones that they are expected to beat. On the other hand, Virginia Tech just fired their head coach. After a promising start to the season with an upset over UNC, the Hokies have steadily returned back to the mediocre team they were expected to be preseason. I don’t like either team in this game, so I’m taking the TD plus the hook with the Hokies.
Oregon @ Utah, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Oregon +3, Under 59
I don’t love Oregon as a real championship contender this year. However, this line is disrespectful to the Ducks. Utah is playing much better since they made the change to Cam Rising at QB. If they had maintained that momentum and blown out Arizona last week like they were supposed to, then maybe I could get behind this line. But they didn’t. I won’t be surprised if Utah gets the win on Saturday, but at this point, Oregon has proven more on the field. I’m taking the Ducks getting 3 points. I would not play the side if it drops below a FG.
Other games I’m watching:
Air Force (-1) @ Nevada, Friday 8:00 PM CT
Florida State @ Boston College (-1.5), 11:00 AM CT
SMU @ Cincinnati (-10.5), 2:30 PM CT
Louisiana (+4.5) @ Liberty, 3:00 PM CT
UCLA (-3) @ USC, 3:00 PM CT
Wyoming (+5.5) @ Utah State, 7:00 PM CT
Arizona State @ Oregon State (+3), 9:30 PM CT
Dogs of the Week
I went two for three last week on underdog picks, including ODU’s dominant win over FAU. Definitely missed on the Syracuse pick though. Hoping to cash in on a big underdog this week.
Rutgers +710 over Penn State
USF +180 over Tulane
UAB +170 over UTSA
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!