Looks like my Week 10 results were not a fluke, at least against the spread. Over the last two weeks, I am hitting on sides at a robust 58%. While I would love to maintain that pace the rest of the year, I would be happy to just keep things above .500 from here on out. On the season, I am now hitting at 51% against the spread and 53% on totals.
It’s SoCon Saturday in the SEC this week which is not great for the schedule this weekend. The mid-week slate is pretty light, but there are five games on Friday to set the stage for Saturday. This should be a good weekend to catch some marquee G5 games with Cincinnati and UTSA hopefully being challenged by SMU and UAB, respectively. Here are some games I am looking forward to:
Michigan State @ Ohio State, Saturday 11:00 AM CT
UAB @ UTSA, Saturday 2:30 PM CT
SMU @ Cincinnati, Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Louisiana @ Liberty, Saturday 3:00 PM CT
UCLA @ USC, Saturday 3:00 PM CT
Baylor @ Kansas State, Saturday 4:30 PM CT
Oregon @ Utah, Saturday 6:30 PM CT
Arizona State @ Oregon State. Saturday 9:30 PM CT
The Futures Report
Checking in on how some of my pre-season predictions are faring after Week 11. I am in a great spot heading into the final weeks of the season. I already have 52 winners and only 22 losers. Just need a few more teams to guarantee an over .500 season for team futures.
Feeling Better
Georgia o10.5/Oregon o9 - I don’t write about Georgia very often because of how dominant they have been this season. Saturday’s game against Tennessee was no exception. With games against Charleston Southern and Georgia Tech on deck, the Bulldogs should coast to the SEC Championship undefeated. Oregon hasn’t looked as good on the field but they continue to win. Unlike Georgia, the next two weeks will not be easy for the Ducks. I just need Oregon to beat one of Utah or Oregon State to get over this total. I think they can get it done.
Auburn u7.5/Penn State u9 - After a close game between Auburn and Penn State in September, both of these teams were off to hot starts. However, conference play has brought both teams back down to earth. Auburn has now lost two straight after a catastrophic meltdown on Saturday. This total probably would’ve cashed later this year after a loss to Alabama, but I would rather not risk it. On the other hand, Penn State has lost 4 of their last 5 in conference. While the loss to Michigan is respectable, the loss to Illinois a few weeks ago ultimately doomed any chance at an over.
Iowa State u9.5/Texas Tech o5 - If not for the end of the Texas/Kansas game, this game would have been my pick for Game of the Week. Texas Tech jumped out to a huge lead before allowing Iowa State to come all the way back and tie it. All of that led to a 62-yard FG as time expired to give Texas Tech the win. If you missed it, you can watch it with the Texas Tech radio broadcast below. As an added bonus, this game cashed both season futures for these teams. All in all a good game.
Feeling Worse
Kansas u1.5/UMass o1.5 - I almost put this in the “Feeling Better” section because Texas losing to Kansas is never not funny. However, it did give Kansas its second win of the season giving me another loss on teams with a total of 1.5 wins (joining ULM). UMass will likely join that group but in the opposite direction. In the preseason, I took the UMass over believing that they could win at least one, if not both, of their FCS games. They lost both. One last chance against NMSU remains at the end of the season with both teams looking for a second win.
Michigan u7.5/Notre Dame u8.5 - Sometimes you just completely misread teams in the preseason. That’s what happened this year with Michigan and Notre Dame. Looking at their remaining opponents, both of these teams should comfortably get to double-digit wins this season. I haven’t been overly impressed with Michigan, but wins are wins. We’ll see how the Wolverines look against Ohio State. I have been impressed with Notre Dame. Unless they completely blow it against Stanford or Georgia Tech, the Fighting Irish will be 11-1 with their only loss to Cincinnati.
Coastal Carolina o10/Liberty o9 - One risk to taking overs on teams with high win totals is a low margin for error. The best I can do for both of these futures is a push now that Coastal Carolina lost again over the weekend. The Chanticleers should be heavy favorites in their next two games, but if Grayson McCall is still out, they could be handed another loss. I am less confident in getting a push out of Liberty. Their last two games are against Louisiana and Army. Both of those teams are very good and Liberty has not been as dominant this year as they were last year.
Week 12 Mid-Week Preview
We get another fun Sun Belt game to get the week started on Wednesday before a full Thursday slate. In general, I like taking the points and taking unders in mid-week MAC games. As we saw last week, a lot of these games end up being close contests. Here are my picks for the Tuesday - Thursday games:
Toledo @ Ohio, Tuesday 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Toledo -6.5, Over 54
Toledo is looking more like the team I thought they would be at the beginning of the year. The offense is humming again, which is great, but the improvement I am most encouraged by is on defense. That will be important on Tuesday playing against an Ohio team that all of a sudden is dangerous running the ball. I think Toledo’s run defense can be good enough to stop the Bobcats, so I’m comfortable laying anything under 7 points here.
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, Tuesday 6:30 PM CT
Pick: WMU -5, Under 68
Western Michigan didn’t inspire much confidence last week when they needed a last-second touchdown to beat Akron. However, Eastern Michigan didn’t fare much better in a loss to Ohio. While I don’t love laying the points here, I do think WMU is the better team with a better QB. However, I do like the under in this game. EMU and WMU are both capable of putting up major points, but expecting both teams to put up nearly 35 points on a Tuesday night MAC game is a lot to ask. I like the under here down to 66.5.
Bowling Green @ Miami-OH, Tuesday 7:00 PM CT
Pick: Miami-OH -15.5, Over 51
Miami-OH is quietly having a very solid season. After a disappointing loss two weeks ago to Ohio, the Redhawks beat up on Buffalo last Tuesday night. That leaves them just one win away from bowl eligibility facing a Bowling Green team that is improved but still really bad. Miami-OH has an explosive offense with the ability to completely run away with the game. That’s what happened last week against Buffalo and I expect it to happen again this week. I like the Redhawks laying anything under 17. I also like the over in this game. The Bowling Green offense isn’t so inept that it can’t contribute a few scores against this Redhawks defense.
Central Michigan @ Ball State, Wednesday 6:00 PM CT
Pick: CMU +2.5, Under 62.5
I don’t know what Ball State has done to deserve to be favorites in this game. I’m certainly higher on NIU than most other people (more on that below), but Ball State should have been able to pull out the win last week. In the last two weeks, CMU has put on a show against WMU and Kent State. Ball State is a better defensive team than either of those squads, so I’m inclined to take the under here. However, Ball State does not have the offense to keep pace with CMU, so I like the road team getting points in this game.
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo, Wednesday 6:00 PM CT
Pick: NIU -1.5, Under 63.5
As I mentioned above, I'm a fan of the NIU Huskies this year. I didn't think I would be. I took the under on their season win total for a reason. However, they have far exceeded my expectations this. So much so that I am willing to back them as road favorites in this spot. Part of this pick is a fade of Buffalo. Buffalo just hasn't been good this year while NIU continues to find ways to win. My concern here is NIU's propensity to play in close games. If you can find NIU -1, I highly recommend taking it instead of -1.5.
Louisville @ Duke, Thursday 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Louisville -19.5, Under 59
I hope that Lousiville’s performance last week against Syracuse is an indicator of how the team will perform moving forward and not a reflection of it being Lamar Jackson day. Ultimately, it may not matter against a hapless Duke team. If I have a concern in this game, it's the under. Louisville scored at will against Syracuse last week, but we're also able to keep Syracuse off the board. If the defense can't duplicate that success this week, this total could edge into the 60s. Let's hope not.
Keep an eye out on Twitter for updates to my mid-week picks if anything changes over the next few days. My full Week 12 preview will be up on Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading! Let me know what you think on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Good luck!