It feels good to be back. My mid-week picks didn’t get off to a great start, but that means we can only go up from here. It feels like lines have really tightened up as the season enters its final month. Combined with a lot of teams dealing with injuries, picks are becoming more and more difficult. However, that doesn’t mean the value isn’t out there. Let’s get to the football!
The Picks
Friday, November 12th
Cincinnati @ USF, 5:00 PM CT
Pick: USF +23.5, Under 57
Cincinnati is certainly capable of blowing out USF as they did against Temple and UCF. Cincinnati is the best G5 team in the country. However, recently, they haven’t shown it on the field. In the last three weeks, Cincinnati has had to escape with narrow wins over Navy and Tulsa. Neither of those teams is definitively better than a USF team that looked much better against a solid Houston squad last weekend. Until Cincinnati can show that it is still the team that can blow out lesser ACC teams, I am not laying over three TDs. Give me the Bulls plus the points on Friday night.
Saturday, November 13th
Oklahoma @ Baylor, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Oklahoma -5.5, Under 62.5
Baylor’s loss to TCU last weekend is a huge red flag heading into this weekend against Oklahoma. For as good as Chandler Morris played for the Horned Frogs, he is not Caleb Williams. Also, Lincoln Riley is a better coach than a TCU team with an interim head coach. I’m a little worried about taking the under here since Baylor’s defense has looked very suspect lately. Their offense has shown the ability to put up points though. That being said, I think Dave Aranda is a good defensive coach and will try to limit the big plays from Oklahoma. I don’t love it, but I am taking the under in this game as well.
Michigan @ Penn State, 11:00 AM CT
Pick: Michigan -1.5, Under 48.5
As long as this line remains below a FG, I am taking Michigan in this game. Penn State isn’t a bad team, but their offense is severely limited. The running game is non-existent which means the entire game is on the shoulders of Sean Clifford. That is not a team I want to back facing a Michigan defensive line that is good at rushing the passer. I do like the under in this game. Penn State’s defense is very good and should be able to keep the Michigan offense in check. I’m taking the under 48.5.
Purdue @ Ohio State, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Ohio State. -20.5, Under 62
I really want to take Purdue in this game. It would be awesome to see Purdue beat another top-5 team. But Ohio State is a completely different caliber of top-5 team than Iowa or Michigan State. I think most people would agree that neither the Hawkeyes nor the Spartans were deserving of such lofty rankings. Ohio State is. The wins over Penn State and Nebraska weren’t super impressive, but the Buckeyes are a clearly better team. Purdue’s defense has played very well this year so the under will also be a good play here. I know it’s a big number, but I don’t see how the Boilermakers stay in the game. I’m laying the points with Ohio State.
Miami @ Florida State, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Miami -2.5, Under 61
Since replacing D’Eriq King at QB, the Miami offense looks like a completely different unit. If not for some turnovers last week, the Hurricanes would have blown out Georgia Tech. It’s a good thing they didn’t. This line should be closer to a TD and I am getting it under a FG. That’s a great value. I’m also on the under, but I don’t love it. While Miami’s offense has looked better, the Florida State defense has been improved this year, so I hope it is enough to keep the score under 61.
Boston College @ Georgia Tech, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Boston College +2, Over 54
Even if he isn’t 100%, the return of Phil Jurkovec at QB should have Boston College as a favorite in this game. As I mentioned above, the game against Miami was not as close as the final score indicated. Georgia Tech’s offense is fine, but the defense is not good at all. I thought the return of Jurkovec last week would result in an offensive explosion for the Golden Eagles. It didn’t happen last week, so I’m betting on it to happen this week instead. I will take Boston College plus the points and the over.
UAB @ Marshall, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: UAB +4.5, Under 54.5
This is arguably the best G5 game of the week. UAB and Marshall boast two of the top defenses in CUSA. Marshall has a slightly better offense, but I expect this game to be a defensive battle. I make this total under 50 points, so I am definitely on the under here. With such a low total, I’m also taking the points here. I think Marshall wins this game, but with two evenly matched teams, I can’t lay anything over a FG. Give me the Blazers +4.5.
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Texas A&M -2.5, Over 56.5
I understand why this line is the way it is, but I think it’s too low. This Texas A&M team only has two strengths, but they happen to line up perfectly with what it takes to beat Ole Miss. For starters, the Aggies are a great running team. Ole Miss struggles across the board, but they are especially bad against the run. We saw that in the loss to LSU. Texas A&M’s other strength is the defense. The Ole Miss offense will already be at less than full strength with a hobbled Matt Corral at QB. Ole Miss has to rely on its offense to win games and that will be a challenge against this A&M defense. I like Texas A&M to cover the short line on the road.
Arkansas @ LSU, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: Arkansas -2.5, Under 59
The shine has really come off this Arkansas team after a hot start to the season. The Razorbacks nearly lost last week to Mississippi State after losing to Auburn a few weeks earlier. Over the same time period, LSU has a win over Florida and a close loss to Alabama. By all accounts, I should be taking the Tigers here at home. However, I think this could be a game where the Arkansas offense can get back on track against a porous LSU defense. I’m also putting some faith in an Arkansas defense reclaiming some of the success it had earlier in the year facing a QB in Max Johnson who has been very underwhelming. I’m taking Arkansas on the road.
NC State @ Wake Forest, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: NC State +1.5, Under 66.5
Wake Forest is coming off their first loss of the season after falling in a shootout to UNC last week. NC State will provide a much different challenge for the Demon Deacons. NC State’s defense will provide a much stiffer test than the Tarheels did. I’m not confident that the NC State offense will have enough firepower to win this game, but I have been impressed with Devin Leary at QB. If Wake Forest is feeling down after their first loss of the season, NC State should have a chance to win. I thought Wake Forest was a little bit fraudulent all year long, so I am taking the Wolfpack as a short dog.
Nevada @ San Diego State, 9:30 PM CT
Pick: San Diego State -3, Over 46
Nevada should have lost last week against San Jose State. They barely squeaked by with a three-point win, but they won’t be as fortunate this weekend. Nevada is entirely dependent on Carson Strong and the passing game to generate offense. San Diego State has one of the best pass defenses in the country. On the other side of the ball, San Diego State wants to run the ball and Nevada really struggles against the run. Laying a full three points isn’t ideal, but it’s better than laying 3.5. I’m taking San Diego State at home.
Other games I’m watching:
Cincinnati @ USF (+23.5), Friday 5:00 PM CT
WVU @ Kansas State (-6.5), 11:00 AM CT
FAU @ ODU (+6.5), 2:30 PM CT
South Carolina (+1) @ Missouri, 3:00 PM CT
Hawaii @ UNLV (+3.5), 3:00 PM CT
Notre Dame @ Virginia (+5.5), 6:30 PM CT
Washington State (+14) @ Oregon, 9:30 PM CT
Dogs of the Week
I’m taking some under-the-radar games for my underdog picks this week. Hopefully, these lines are a little looser than the bigger games on the slate.
Old Dominion +210 over FAU
Syracuse +135 over Lousiville
Air Force +110 over Colorado State
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck!