The first bowl games are finished and they were very entertaining. The football product has been sloppy at times, although that is to be expected in games between teams that finished the year around .500. Speaking of .500, I went a perfectly average 8-8 on the first round of bowl games. I did slightly better on totals than against the spread, but overs went 7-1 which is completely unsustainable moving forward. Beginning on Monday, there will be college football every day through Christmas! I’ve got picks for all 8 games below! Let’s get to the football!
The Picks
Monday, December 20th
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Old Dominion vs. Tulsa, 1:30 PM CT
Pick: ODU +9.5, Under 53.5
Old Dominion pulled off one of the most unlikely turnarounds this season after sitting out 2020 and starting 1-6 on the year. The Monarchs rattled off five straight wins to end the season, although the level of competition was admittedly weaker than the Tulsa team they are facing on Monday. Tulsa’s strength is on defense, but the Golden Hurricanes will be playing without defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie who left to take the same job at TCU. If Tulsa can’t maintain the same level of defense they had during the regular season, I can’t see them pulling away from a hot Old Dominion team. 9.5 points is too many so I’m taking the Monarchs in Myrtle Beach.
Tuesday, December 21st
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Kent State vs. Wyoming, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Wyoming -3, Under 59
Kent State will once again be involved in a game featuring two contrasting styles on offense. The last time we saw Kent State take the field, they were unable to handle the NIU rushing attack in the MAC title game. While Kent State’s offense is fun to watch when it’s clicking, the defense has struggled the entire year. Fortunately for the Golden Flashes, Wyoming has been wildly inconsistent this season. Given some of their performances this year, it’s not a given that the Cowboys show up in Boise on Tuesday afternoon. However, if Wyoming plays well, they should walk away with the win. When Wyoming has been off, they’ve struggled to generate any sort of offense, so I like the under in this game to hedge against a Wyoming no-show.
Frisco Bowl
UTSA vs. San Diego State, 6:30 PM CT
Pick: SDSU -2.5, Under 49.5
This game opened with UTSA as a three-point favorite, but the line has since moved to favor San Diego State. Part of the line movement can be explained by UTSA’s star running back Sincere McCormick opting out of the bowl game to go to the NFL Draft. However, even before that announcement, it felt like the wrong team was favored in this game. San Diego State’s defense is excellent against the run, and UTSA doesn’t have the passing offense to give the Aztecs problems. I’m also discounting San Diego State’s loss in the Mountain West title game where they were dealing with multiple players out due to COVID. San Diego State is the better team in this game and should come away with the win. I also like the under in this game as both teams have a run-first mentality on offense.
Wednesday, December 22nd
Armed Forces Bowl
Missouri vs. Army, 7:00 PM CT
Pick: Missouri +4, Under 57.5
It’s not very often that you get the opportunity to take an SEC team as an underdog in the postseason. Granted, there is a good reason for it in this matchup. Missouri’s run defense is near the bottom of the country in nearly every statistic. That is not a recipe for success playing Army’s triple-option offense. However, Army’s defense is also porous against the run, as they demonstrated when they couldn’t get off the field against Navy. Missouri’s star running back Tyler Badie is expected to play in this game. While Missouri will be rotating QBs in this game, Missouri is the more talented team on both sides of the ball. I’m taking Missouri plus the points in this game. It might be worth waiting to bet on this game until after kickoff. It should be abundantly clear after Army’s first drive whether or not Missouri’s defense is interested in trying to stop the option. If not, this game could go sideways in a hurry.
Tuesday, December 23rd
Frisco Football Classic
North Texas vs. Miami-OH, 2:30 PM CT
Pick: Miami-OH -3, Over 54.5
Not to be confused with the Frisco Bowl, the Frisco Football Classis was newly created this year to accommodate two 6-6 teams that otherwise would have been left out of bowl season. North Texas won their last five games to secure bowl eligibility and likely save head coach Seth Littrell’s job for one more season. On the other side, Miami-OH had a rough start to the season but still ended up one point away from appearing in the MAC title game. I don’t love either team in this matchup. The best player in this game is probably Miami-OH’s QB Brett Gabbert, so I will take the RedHawks as a short favorite. I also like the over in this game as neither defense in this game is particularly adept against the pass.
Gasparilla Bowl
UCF vs. Florida, 6:00 PM CT
Pick: Florida -6.5, Over 55.5
This game has everything I’m looking for when I look for bowl game upsets. Florida has an interim head coach (Billy Napier was hired to replace Dan Mullen but will not coach the bowl game), multiple players opting out (DE Zach Carter for the NFL, WR Jacob Copeland and LB Mohamoud Diabate to the transfer portal), and likely no motivation after a 6-6 season. With all that being said, I’m still taking the Gators in this game. Like in the Armed Forces Bowl, Florida is far more talented on both sides of the ball than UCF. In addition, this UCF team is not the same as the teams that were dominating the G5 just a few years ago. If Dillon Gabriel was healthy (and not transferring), I could talk myself into a UCF win, but I can’t get there with a freshman QB. I also like the over in this game. Florida’s defense has had issues against lesser teams before which could turn this game into a bit of a shootout.
Wednesday, December 24th
Hawaii Bowl
Memphis vs. Hawaii, 7:00 PM CT
Pick: Hawaii +8.5, Over 55.5
I have no idea what to make of this game. On one side, Memphis lost 6 of their final 9 games after starting the year 3-0. The Tigers will also be without star receiver Calvin Austin III who opted out for the NFL Draft. On the other side, Hawaii is dealing with reports of abuse in the program under head coach Todd Graham. That has caused starting QB Chevan Cordeiro and RB Dae Dea Hunter to enter the transfer portal. Hawaii wasn’t that good on offense to begin with, so losing two top playmakers could be too much to handle. Then again, Hawaii beat Fresno State earlier this season without Cordeiro so they are certainly capable of pulling off the upset in their home stadium. I don’t love this pick, but 8.5 points feel like too many for a Memphis team that has struggled this season.
Wednesday, December 25th
Camellia Bowl
Georgia State vs. Ball State, 1:30 PM CT
Pick: Georgia State -5, Over 50
Only one game on Christmas day and it might not be that pretty to watch. Ball State did not look like the same team this season that won the MAC last year. In particular, the offense took a huge step back while the defense did not show any improvement. Meanwhile, Georgia State has shown marked improvement on the defensive side of the ball. That makes me nervous taking the over in this game as Ball State’s contribution to the total could be minimal. I think Georgia State wins this game by multiple scores so I will lay anything under a TD with the Panthers.
Dogs of the Week
Western Kentucky crushed Appalachian State to give us our only underdog moneyline win last week. UTEP looked like they might be able to pull off the upset but couldn’t hold on for four quarters. This week, I once again have only three underdogs against the spread, so my moneyline picks are the same as the picks above.
Old Dominion +270 over Tulsa
Hawaii +255 over Memphis
Missouri +150 over Army
Let me know what you think of my picks on Twitter @CFB_Connor. Thanks for reading! Good luck and Merry Christmas!